BizThoughts

Guess what's been on my mind? Yup, the Amazon Kindle. How'd you guess?

While it's enlightening to praise and debate, I know it has quite a few improvements to make before it rocks the market. Sure, it has more promise than it's competitors, but if it doesn't maintain its lead, than I'll be a sad panda.

Here's my wish list of what Amazon needs to do to improve the Kindle for v2 and beyond:

• Improve it's ergonomics (hardware) and usability (software). This is probably its most well-known criticism. Hopefully they'll follow the principles of KISS.

• Continue getting more content. That means getting more publishers to release their books in e-book format. Probably not an easy task, but if anyone has the clout to do it, it's Amazon.

• Allow more formats to be readable. They don't necessarily have to be writable for now, just readable. Like PDF, PPT, and XLS file formats. (To their credit, they already support TXT, HTML, and DOC.)

• Allow readers a way to somehow "transfer" their existing books into the Kindle. I'm not sure how this could be done, as it leaves many openings for abuse. But I'd love to digitize my current library into the Kindle without having to buy all of those books again. Ugh.

• Add a touch screen interface. Touch screen UIs are nice and generally easy-to-use (if done right). They could add significantly to the usability of the Kindle—again, if done right.

• Offer a color screen. At least, as an option for some people. I'm sure this is on their internal wish list already.

• Offer a backlit screen. This could also be an option, as some people may feel its current state is better on the eyes.

• Offer multiple versions. They could differ in size, storage space, and maybe even color and outer material (imagine a leather-bound Kindle! Hmm!). If/when the Kindle catches on with younger consumers, the market for personalization accessories could be sizable too.

• Strengthen its body. Books have to survive quite a rough rumble and tumble. It would be cool if the Kindle could survive that kind of physical stress too. Perhaps this could merely be another version.

Go go Kindle go!

I'm having a fun ole' debate over the Amazon (AMZN) Kindle right now. It's taking place in the comments of a previous post between myself and Nicholas Zakas, a published author, seasoned programmer, and all-around intelligent guy.

I like debates. They give me a chance to hone my opinions and positions on various topics. I'll do my best to defend my position, but more often than not, I'll learn a new viewpoint that adds to my knowledge of that topic.

My post was about how great the Amazon Kindle was going to be. I likened the Kindle to Apple's (AAPL) iPod. Nicholas commented that:

The iPod was successful largely because people wanted to replace their large portable CD players with something that could play more…it wasn't techies that make the iPod the sensation that it was, it was the non-techies.

This implies it was the iPod's ease-of-use that made it such a commercial success. While I totally agree, I think it was more than just the iPod's simple & friendly form factor that made it great. It was also:

1. iPod's branding and Apple's great overall brand
2. The "complete package" that iTunes integration offers to the iPod

He argued that while this is true for iPods, it's different for books:

There's something about the tactile relationship between readers and their material that makes it hard to give up. I remember when people predicted that newspapers would go out of circulation when people could get their news online…

True, but the same was once said about records when first CDs came out. There was a time when people predicted the TV would replace the radio. And later, that interactive TV would replace regular TV. I've never believed that newspapers would go out of circulation, but I do believe their role will change—and has already changed. It's no longer the single source of up-to-date news. People primarily go to the TV for that now. (Those that go to the web for up-to-date news are still in the minority, though it's growing rapidly.)

He also made a comment about the Amazon Kindle falsely gaining a first-mover advantage, though the Kindle isn't the first e-book reader on the market; there are quite a few already. While he's probably just not as familiar with the e-book market, we both agree that first-mover advantage isn't a panacea for success.

To that, he followed up with a simple mathematical point:

Considering you can get great books for under $10 nearly anywhere, what would you do? Buy a $400 machine to output text, or buy 40 books? I love tech as much as the next computer geek, but even I would go for the latter.

Good point. If you're someone who will only buy forty $10 books, you'll hardly see any cost-savings benefit in the Amazon Kindle. But if you're someone like me, who's been known to spend upwards of $800 on books a year, the Amazon Kindle may be worth it.

But then this goes into the question of target demographics, which Nicholas also pointed out:

Tell me who [the target consumers] are for Kindle? People who read books like books, not just the text. The divergence between book readers and technology couldn't possibly be greater. People often read books to escape computers and technology.

I can't disagree with that. As a bookworm myself, I also love the tactile feel of a book. However, I used to love the tactile feel of a CD booklet too. Every time I'd listen to a CD, I'd read the booklet for the lyrics or linear notes. Or maybe just stare at the album cover art. I loved doing that. When MP3s first hit the market, I didn't see the appeal because they felt so ethereal and amorphous. There wasn't anything I could hold in my hands.

Then I hit a tipping point and realized that the portability and physical space savings of MP3s offset the benefits of having CD booklets for me. The same went for digital movies and DVDs. Now, I love digitizing all of my media.

What may tip the balance of books to e-books are the younger generations of consumers. They're already growing up with the Internet, mobile phones, and MMORPGs (with their virtual goods) as everyday items in their lives. It's foreign for them to imagine a world without technology like that. They also don't place as much value on CD booklets, DVD boxes, or books in the same way the older generations do—younger generations seem all-to-eager to accept digital media.

Just like newspapers, there will always be a role for books. When you're chilling in a log cabin or on a beach somewhere, you'll probably want a good solid book in your hands. But if you're on a train commuting to work, it may be more desirable to hold a device that will allow you to read any book, newspaper, or blog you want.

Potential Initial Niche Targets

One last thought. If Amazon were to approach the e-book market with Geoffrey Moore's advice in mind (as he writes in Crossing the Chasm), they could target graduate students as an initial niche. With graduate textbooks costing hundreds of dollars, they may find it more cost-effective and easier to lug around a Kindle rather than seven 5lb textbooks. The price point of the Kindle would have to drop from its current $359.00, however. But that is inevitable as they streamline their production costs.

Undergraduate students could be a viable initial niche as well, though more research would need to be done since many undergraduates just purchase used textbooks to save money. If a cheaper Kindle could tap into this market, the purchasers may actually be the students' parents.

Another initial niche could be any profession that requires access to large volumes of books at any given time, such as lawyers. Imagine the mountains of books a lawyer has to go through. Now imagine being able to search through all of that easily through a single handheld device. Not bad, huh?

This is easier said than done, of course. There are lots of tricky book publisher contracts to negotiate. Without the necessary content, these niches are impossible to reach. But still, it's not hard to imagine these users wanting a device like the Amazon Kindle, yea?

Remember your first iPod? Remember the first song you purchased from Apple's (AAPL) iTunes Store? Remember the 100th song?

I got a chance to check out Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle this past weekend. It was almost like seeing an iPod for the first time. I couldn't stop drooling and fawning over all the buttons and controls.

Much has been written about the Kindle already. Some extol its features, like being able to carry lots of books cheaply, having good battery life, and having audiobook integration. Others slam it for it's poor design and lack of social network (Um, really? You want a social network on an e-book reader? If anything, that's a P3 feature and shouldn't be part of a v1 product). It's interesting to note that many of the Kindle's original critics have changed their minds after using it for a while.

Rob Tillotson of The Gadgeteer has a deep & thorough review, Daniel Turner of Technology Review offers a good overview of its technical guts, and Mike Elgan of Macworld lists some great tips & tricks of the Kindle. These include how you can surf the web using its basic web browser (called, appropriately, "Basic Web"), download free e-books, get answers from a free human-powered search engine called Kindle NowNow, make the battery last even longer, read RSS feeds for free, etc.

My reaction? I just went out and purchased some AMZN stock. It's currently floating around the same price it had when the Kindle debuted on Nov. 19, 2007. It closed at 79.18 that day; today, it's been bouncing between 77.43 and 78.85, down from a high of 84.39 last Monday. But I don't care about that. I'm long AMZN. I'm betting that the Kindle will be to Amazon what the iPod was to Apple—and we all know how good the iPod was to Apple!

Here's why I'm long on Amazon:

UPDATED 5/24/2008: I added #9 to this list.

1. I am exactly the kind of early adopter customer Amazon wants. Although I didn't rush out to buy a Kindle (and am not going to anytime soon), as soon as the second or third version is released, I will. They're working on their second version right now, a source in Amazon tells me (and it sounds pretty good!), so it shouldn't be long before v3 is ready and relatively bug-free. And when I purchase a Kindle, I'm going buy lots of e-books. I'm a voracious reader and am always buying new books. Since Amazon's strategy is to profit from e-book sales and not Kindle sales (the Kindle is a loss leader), attracting book-hungry customers like me is going to be so money.

2. I travel often and always carry a book or three with me. That often adds extra weight that, well, just sucks. Since I usually try to travel light, carrying one Kindle versus three books sounds totally awesome. I can see other travelers wanting the same benefits. The business traveler niche could have great potential for Amazon, especially if business users are able to load their business documents onto the Kindle and peruse them during their flights.

3. I'm a bit of a digital pack-rat. Or just a big a geek, I dunno. I once had over 600 CDs. Then, to live more efficiently and have less material belongings, I burned them all into MP3s. I did the same with my DVDs. All that extra shelf space allowed my book collection to grow like crazy. Now imagine if I could digitize all of my books. How cool would that be. All of the media I'd own would be digital, portable, and easily searchable (told you I'm a big geek). That would be cool.

4. This is only a v1 product and already it's gotten a huge positive reaction. Most v1 products suck. The first generation of iPods sucked. But with Apple's branding & slick design and iTunes' ease of use & practical prices, it took over the market and surged as each new version was released. Kindle 1.0 was cool, 2.0 and higher can only get better.

5. A medical student I know took a look at the Kindle and said that if all of his medical textbooks were offered on the Kindle, he'd buy it in a heartbeat. First of all, medical textbooks are huge. HUGE. And medical students have to carry two to four of these heavy things at once. Second, medical textbooks are expensive, especially for starving students. With e-books being cheaper than regular books, a student could easily make up the cost of the Kindle over the course of his/her education. This could be a huge market for them, and the smart folks at Amazon know this.

6. Amazon has to maintain physical warehouses to store all the books they sell. E-books don't require expensive warehouses; they just require a database on a server farm somewhere, which is infinitely cheaper. This means Amazon could potentially sell more products (e-books) while not incurring any additional costs. I like them mathematics.

7. If Amazon can execute its Kindle & e-book strategy well, it certainly could go the way Apple's iPod & iTunes strategy went. According to a Nov. 19, 2007 article from Aaron Pressman of Business Week, "Apple shares (AAPL) stood at $9.51 (adjusted for a split) the day before the launch. I don't need to tell you where they are today. Ok, I will: $166." Not a bad return, I'd say.

8. I'm not the only one who expects great things from Kindle. Citigroup Analyst Mark Mahaney "expects Amazon to generate between $400 million and $750 million in revenue from the Kindle by 2010, or 1% - 3% of Amazon's total revenue," writes Michael Arrington of TechCrunch. "If Amazon executes right with its Kindle product and marketing strategy, the iPod analogy for the Kindle won't be too far stretched," Mahaney is quoted as saying. Cool!

9. Part of iPod's success came from the ease of use of getting more MP3s. Just as the iTunes Store made it very easy to download MP3s, the Kindle Store makes it very easy to download e-books for the Kindle. And even better, the Kindle Store is easier than iTunes because you can directly access it via the Kindle (no need for a computer at all).

I can't wait for the day I can look back and remember my first Kindle, my first e-book, and my 100th e-book. And also, a great big ROI on AMZN!

I like to win. Blame it on my competitive nature, the euphoria of winning, or the adrenalin of success. In any case, I like to win.

So when Bill Barker wrote "How to Win CNBC's Million-Dollar Portfolio Challenge", my ears perked like a cat hearing a can opener. (Meeeow!) Here's what Barker suggests:

1. Use all five portfolios.
2. Maintain a super-concentrated portfolio.
3. Size matters, so go small.
4. Focus on earnings announcements.
5. Look at companies trading at or near 52-week lows.
6. Celebrate low-priced stocks.
7. Look for shorts; they are great candidates for quick upward moves.
8. Invest in possible mergers, as they could offer a quick pop.
9. Biotech stocks frequently populate the top performers of the day.
10. Simply have fun.

Good advice there. I've already used some of it. He also suggests these stocks, which more or less fit the criteria he's outlined:

• Blockbuster (BBI)
• Circuit City (CC)
• FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
• TiVo (TIVO)

Let's see how on-the-money his advice will be. And good luck everyone!

I scratched my chin and occasionally picked my nose for a long time while coming up with these. For this year's CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge, I decided to cluster my stock selections by sector.

Since we can create five portfolios with a minimum of four stocks each, I did just that: five portfolios with four stocks each. Going with just four stocks maximizes my chances; any more than that, and I'd be diversifying my portfolios too much. The name of the game here isn't Who's the Best Real-World Market Investor, it's Who's the Best Short-Term (Two-Month) CNBC-Fabricated-World Market Investor.

My initial picks:

Portfolio 1: Entertainment

Let's see how Marvel does with this summer's upcoming blockbuster movies. BTW, Iron Man rocked!

• Marvel Entertainment (MVL)
• DreamWorks Animation (DWA)
• Electronic Arts (ERTS)
• Activision (ATVI)

Portfolio 2: Energy

Energy's a volatile sector and oil & gas prices are still rising. Perfect combo for wild stock spikes. Hopefully mostly up in the next two months.

• Venoco (VQ)
• Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP)
• Berry Petroleum (BRY)
• BP (BP)

Portfolio 3: Discount Shopping

Some people are already tightening their belts. That means more shopping at discount stores. Everyone loves cheap stuff!

• 99 Cent Only Stores (NDN)
• Dollar Tree (DLTR)
• Family Dollar Stores (FDO)
• Ross Stores (ROST)

Portfolio 4: Technology

I have the least confidence in this portfolio; I don't know how strong technology will be growing in the next two months. But its volatility could make for some huge price swings.

• Clearwire (CLWR)
• GigaMedia (GIGM)
• 3Com Corporation (COMS)
• Yahoo! (YHOO)

Portfolio 5: First Week's Top Market Movers

This one simply takes the first week's top market movers. It's a random grouping, a what-the-hell portfolio, because: what the hell.

• Venoco (VQ)
• Acme Packet (APKT)
• Collective Brands (PSS)
• ICO Global Communications (ICOG)

What are your picks?

It's that time of year again. Time to take part in CNBC's 2008 Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge!

I entered this contest last year with a few average picks, and when it was discovered that some participants were gaming the system, the whole thing started becoming kinda lame. My final results were okay too: a 5.2% increase. Not bad.

This year, CNBC has changed up the rules because of last year's cheating. (Interesting anecdote: after disqualifying all the cheaters, last year's winner, Mary Sue Williams, is apparently still a waitress who is now getting lousy tips - cuz she's rich, her customers tell her.)

The rules now include:

• Requiring at least four stocks in your portfolio
• Allowing up to five portfolios within your account
• Allowing currency trading in addition to stock trading

Officially, this contest began yesterday. Their website has been marred with outages and problems, however, so I've had a hard time getting in and setting up my portfolio. I wonder if this year's contest is going to be kinda lame too. I hope not, though I kind of think it will, especially with the rough start it's been having. Bummer.

You know this already. Most people don't read website text very closely. According to usability guru Jakob Nielsen, they just scan the text.

Well, Nielsen's team just provided further proof of this with an eyetracking study. They've also shown that web surfers only read about 20% of the text.

I'd say more, but you probably won't read it.

Here's something I used to tell my team:

If you ever go to sleep on Sunday night, dreading to wake up Monday morning to go to work, then something is very wrong with your job. You need to see me right away so we can sort it out.

I realize this is a luxury few in the working world have. The majority of employees out there probably dread every day except Friday and Saturday. In the dot-com industry, where our jobs are our hobbies, we get free coffee & snacks (and sometimes more) at the office, and there are perks galore, I find that most employees really love their jobs. Or at least don't despise them.

However, if you do despise your job, and dread waking up Monday morning to go to work, maybe you should talk to your manager. Or quit.