CNBC’s 2008 Portfolio Challenge: My Results

I didn’t win. Which is no big surprise. But I didn’t even know I didn’t win until I happened to check my Spam folder and see a bunch of emails from the CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge.

Oops. Imagine if I had actually won. I might have missed the email!

Let’s see how poorly I did. I’m almost embarrassed to publish these. Gulp.

Portfolio 1: Entertainment

Symbol % Gain
MVL -2.43%
DWA 1.72%
ERTS -15.15%
ATVID 13.33%
Total -2.52%

Portfolio 2: Energy

Symbol % Gain
VQ -8.82%
PXP -16.09%
BRY -20.55%
BP -15.34%
Total -60.81%

Portfolio 3: Discount Shopping

Symbol % Gain
NDN -32.60%
DLTR 0.14%
FDO 1.63%
ROST 1.17%
Total -29.65%

Portfolio 4: Technology

Symbol % Gain
CLWR -26.04%
GIGM -29.31%
COMS -27.84%
YHOO -20.35%
Total -103.54%

Portfolio 5: First Week’s Top Market Movers

Symbol % Gain
VQ -8.82%
APKT -54.25%
PSS -3.98%
ICOG -4.85%
Total -71.90%

Oh my. My my my. That’s a lot of red. That’s just… abysmal. I didn’t do so badly last year, but sure as hell stunk like a rotting goose egg locked in a stuffy car during the summer this year, didn’t I? This is why I’m in Silicon Valley and not Wall Street.

CNBC’s 2008 Portfolio Challenge: How to Win

I like to win. Blame it on my competitive nature, the euphoria of winning, or the adrenalin of success. In any case, I like to win.

So when Bill Barker wrote “How to Win CNBC’s Million-Dollar Portfolio Challenge“, my ears perked like a cat hearing a can opener. (Meeeow!) Here’s what Barker suggests:

  1. Use all five portfolios.
  2. Maintain a super-concentrated portfolio.
  3. Size matters, so go small.
  4. Focus on earnings announcements.
  5. Look at companies trading at or near 52-week lows.
  6. Celebrate low-priced stocks.
  7. Look for shorts; they are great candidates for quick upward moves.
  8. Invest in possible mergers, as they could offer a quick pop.
  9. Biotech stocks frequently populate the top performers of the day.
  10. Simply have fun.

Good advice there. I’ve already used some of it. He also suggests these stocks, which more or less fit the criteria he’s outlined:

Let’s see how on-the-money his advice will be. And good luck everyone!

CNBC’s 2008 Portfolio Challenge: Initial Picks

I scratched my chin and occasionally picked my nose for a long time while coming up with these. For this year’s CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge, I decided to cluster my stock selections by sector.

Since we can create five portfolios with a minimum of four stocks each, I did just that: five portfolios with four stocks each. Going with just four stocks maximizes my chances; any more than that, and I’d be diversifying my portfolios too much. The name of the game here isn’t Who’s the Best Real-World Market Investor, it’s Who’s the Best Short-Term (Two-Month) CNBC-Fabricated-World Market Investor.

My initial picks:

Portfolio 1: Entertainment

Let’s see how Marvel does with this summer’s upcoming blockbuster movies. BTW, Iron Man rocked!

Portfolio 2: Energy

Energy’s a volatile sector and oil & gas prices are still rising. Perfect combo for wild stock spikes. Hopefully mostly up in the next two months.

Portfolio 3: Discount Shopping

Some people are already tightening their belts. That means more shopping at discount stores. Everyone loves cheap stuff!

Portfolio 4: Technology

I have the least confidence in this portfolio; I don’t know how strong technology will be growing in the next two months. But its volatility could make for some huge price swings.

Portfolio 5: First Week’s Top Market Movers

This one simply takes the first week’s top market movers. It’s a random grouping, a what-the-hell portfolio, because: what the hell.

What are your picks?

CNBC’s 2008 Portfolio Challenge

It’s that time of year again. Time to take part in CNBC’s 2008 Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge!

I entered this contest last year with a few average picks, and when it was discovered that some participants were gaming the system, the whole thing started becoming kinda lame. My final results were okay too: a 5.2% increase. Not bad.

This year, CNBC has changed up the rules because of last year’s cheating. (Interesting anecdote: after disqualifying all the cheaters, last year’s winner, Mary Sue Williams, is apparently still a waitress who is now getting lousy tips – cuz she’s rich, her customers tell her.)

The rules now include:

  • Requiring at least four stocks in your portfolio
  • Allowing up to five portfolios within your account
  • Allowing currency trading in addition to stock trading

Officially, this contest began yesterday. Their website has been marred with outages and problems, however, so I’ve had a hard time getting in and setting up my portfolio. I wonder if this year’s contest is going to be kinda lame too. I hope not, though I kind of think it will, especially with the rough start it’s been having. Bummer.

Top Gear, Fifth Gear, and Now: Just Plain Ole’ Gear

Top Gear and Fifth Gear I’ve been drooling all weekend. Drooling over videos of BMW’s new M3 and it’s convertible counterpart. Can I just say: HOT!

The M3 video is a clip from the British show Fifth Gear. That, and the original BBC car show Top Gear, cover all kinds of cool cars. Unfortunately, the shows are only available in the UK, unless you have a satellite TV that’s able to pick up the BBC.

Both shows are popular among car enthusiasts. YouTube may have made them even more popular in this country by introducing them to US audiences (correct me if I’m wrong about that). The shows generally feature cars from BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi, Jaguar, Porsche, Aston Martin, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Maserati, Bentley, as well as a few from Honda, Volkswagen, Dodge, Ford, and General Motors. There’s been some criticism that the shows don’t feature enough “affordable” cars, however.

After talking to a friend about these shows, my mind started wandering. And wondering. Since these shows are so cool, why aren’t they in the US? Or perhaps: what if there were a US version that included American hot rods, pick-up trucks, and SUVs, since those are generally more popular in the US? What if there was a segment for off-roading, where pick-up trucks and SUVs could battle it out on rocky terrain and hills?

As with all seemingly good ideas, I was not the first to think this. According to Top Gear’s Wikipedia entry:

In April 2007, the BBC reported on a Sun story that Top Gear had been in talks about creating an American version. The current presenters would remain as hosts, but the show would focus on American cars and include American celebrities. The Sun reported in July, however, that plans for an American version had been shelved, partly over [Top Gear host Jeremy] Clarkson’s misgivings about spending several months in the U.S., away from his family.

Ah. And then I found this bit of news from The Hollywood Reporter:

The popular BBC car show “Top Gear” is revving up a U.S. edition.

NBC has ordered a pilot for “Gear,” to be produced by BBC Worldwide Prods. Like the original, it will be a mix of cars, humor and celebrities.

There’s some trepidation of this remake, however. The hosts of Top Gear, Clarkson, Richard Hammond, James May and the anonymous & mysterious Stig, are considered a large part of the show’s success. Without their wit and knowledge of cars, some wonder how NBC’s Gear will succeed.

My prediction – if they can:

  • find funny, witty hosts who actually know what they’re talking about,
  • are as entertaining as Tom and Ray Magliozzi (otherwise known as Click and Clack) of the NPR radio show Car Talk,
  • can test drive these cars well enough to give informed opinions,
  • and are camera-friendly (hey, this is Hollywood, after all),

…then they will have a serious shot at success. There will always be purists who dislike an international translation of a great piece of art. But US audiences are fairly different than UK audiences. Some kind of translation is going to be necessary (like pick-up truck and SUV off-roading, I tell ya!).

I’ll be anxiously awaiting this new show. I hope they don’t screw it up!

UPDATE 4/3/2008: Here’s Jay Leno’s opinion on the US version of Top Gear. Pretty dire. I hope he was kidding when he related this anecdote about Gear being about building cars:

I ask: what’s the plan for the show? “Well, like, one week you build a car that flies and the next week you make a car that goes under water.” So I said: you know you can’t build these things in a week.

Building cars? How did they go from Top Gear to Pimp My Ride? Damn, I hope that’s not what Gear is going to be…

Don’t Post Naked Photos of Yourself on Facebook!

Facebook This just in from Caroline McCarthy of Webware: “Report: Facebook threatens to ban Gawker’s Denton“!

So here’s what went down. Just this past Tuesday, Nick Denton, founder of the blog network Gawker Media, published the article “Emily Brill: The Second Generation“, where he featured some very unflattering screenshots taken from a Facebook member’s profile page. This is after Denton “took over as managing editor of Gawker.com this month after several staff departures,” reports McCarthy.

The victim is 25-year-old Emily Brill, daughter of Steven Brill, the founder of CourtTV (I mean truTV), American Lawyer Magazine, and numerous other companies. The screenshots included a set of photos comparing Emily in a bikini against an older college photo where she was “significantly heavier,” adds McCarthy.

Sam Gustin of Portfolio.com writes in his article “Blogger Bullying Draws a Website Warning” that Denton “has violated Facebook’s terms of use… and the social network’s honchos are not amused.”

Facebook’s Terms of Use make it clear that, “Except for your own User Content, you may not upload or republish Site Content on any Internet, Intranet or Extranet site or incorporate the information in any other database or compilation, and any other use of the Site Content is strictly prohibited.”

This could result in Denton being banned from Facebook.

Not surprisingly, this isn’t the first time information from someone’s Facebook profile has been used against them. Back in August 2007, Lucy Morrow Caldwell of Slate Magazine published the article “Daddy Dearest: Rudy Giuliani’s daughter is supporting Barack Obama“. Since both Caldwell and the 17-year-old Caroline Giuliani are both part of the Harvard network, Caldwell was able to see that Giuliani listed her political view as “liberal” and joined the Facebook group “Barack Obama (One Million Strong for Barack).” She has since withdrawn from the group.

Also, back in October 2007, Owen Thomas of Valleywag published the article “Confirmed: Facebook and Microsoft flacks make friends before deal announcement” after noticing that Brandee Barker, head of PR at Facebook, added Adam Sohn, head of marketing PR at Microsoft (MSFT), as a friend. “Just buddies?” wrote Thomas. “I think not. But I’m sure writing up the press release announcing Microsoft’s investment and ad deal will make them fast friends, indeed.”

This almost led to Thomas being banned from Facebook too, his insiders told him.

What’s this mean for you and I? Well, for one, don’t post any naked photos of yourself on Facebook, or anywhere else online for that matter. “Well, duh Mike, that’s a no-brainer,” you say? Sorry kids, practicing safe Facebooking still means you could catch a case of public crabs. (Only abstinence is the true protection, but what’s the fun in that?) Let me explain.

  1. Someone else could upload photos of you

    And if that person tags you in the photos, the photo is now linked to you. Fortunately, you can remove your tag from photos (and videos too). Whew.

  2. Strangers may be able to see your profile

    McCarthy notes that it’s not clear whether Denton and Brill are friends on Facebook, but since both are members of the New York regional network, there’s a chance he could have seen her profile without being directly connected. For instance, if someone pokes you, you can see their profile. So if you poke back, they can see your profile. Fortunately, you can control what they see by altering your Poke, Message and Friend Request Settings.

  3. Strangers could see your photos if they have your album’s URL

    According to Thomas, Facebook privacy is an illusion. Someone gave him the exact URL to a photo album of Facebook’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg, despite not being directly connected to him. This allowed Thomas (and any of us) to view the entire album. Unfortunately, there’s no way to counter this at the moment, though I’m guessing Facebook’s engineers are working on this.

How does Denton feel about being banned from a potentially plump source of stories? As Peter Kafka of Silicon Alley Insider writes in “Nick Denton’s Gawker Takes On Scientologists, Facebook, Wins“:

Denton tells us he doesn’t care if Facebook boots him off the social network: “I was getting bored of Facebook, anyway.” (Note to Gawker Media employees: Yes, we know Denton forced you all to join Facebook last spring. We don’t know whether this means you’re off the hook, though.)

And for the curious stalkers out there, sorry to dash your hopes, but “perhaps due to the Gawker incident, Emily Brill’s Facebook profile is no longer publicly searchable,” says McCarthy. Which is for the best; this Paris-Hilton-esque spotlight must’ve been Hell for her.

SEO for Newspapers and Magazines

Long Bet Remember the long bet between Dave Winer and Martin Martin Nisenholtz of the New York Times?

In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’ Web site.

Rogers Cadenhead of Workbench tallied the results and discovered that he was sorta right. For 2007’s top stories, some blogs did rank higher than newspapers in a Google search.

Read/WriteWeb took a look at this and correctly hinted that the test isn’t an accurate conclusion of the popularity of blogs vs newspapers—it’s really a test on the SEO effectiveness of the two groups of sites. And the blogs in these results are more search engine-friendly than the newspaper websites. (Also, this test doesn’t measure how many people read the actual printed newspapers.)

This made me wonder. What would the newspaper (and magazine) websites have to do to increase their SEO?

  • Use proper heading tags (H1, H2…) for article headlines and subtitles
  • Improve the URLs by replacing those cryptic numbers they oftentimes use the article headline
  • Don’t require user authentication, or create a non-signed-in blurb of the article, though that’s not as SEO-friendly
  • Archive all previous articles publically, perhaps with a disclaimer that it’s an old article (some news sites delete old stories)
  • Update the Google sitemap regularly (some do this already)
  • Encourage links to the article by adding related content or features to important articles that add value
  • Include a link back to the web article in the emailed version
  • Use web standards markup so search engines have less code to crawl and index
  • Create an RSS feed for all articles & articles by category (most do this already, though I’ve seen a few who don’t)

Pretty Independent Machine: New Opportunities

Ths music industry has been on my mind this week. First, it was NIN and Radiohead going independent, then it was how free songs were going to effect musicians.

Now I’m wondering: What will the role of record labels be if songs become freely available to the public, as opposed to within paid CDs or digital files?

And to that, I also wonder: Are there any helpful comparisons to make with the fields of writing, painting, photography, acting, or filmmaking? Perhaps, in these comparisons, there will be a demonstrated example of needing, or not needing, a record label.

All are creative fields with professionals seeking to make a living. So I’m sure there are some similarities, which I’m going to simplify into the need for marketing and distribution. And in all of these fields, the way to get the proper marketing and distribution (as well as other connections) is through representation by some kind of agent or manager.

(Disclaimer: I’m not a professional in any of these fields, so please let me know if anything I write here is incorrect.)

Writers

Representation
This is handled by literary agents. They are generally considered to be crucial, since they hold the key to the marketing and distribution channels. Blogging and online publishing is rapidly becoming an alternative means of self-publishing, diminishing the need for representation.
Marketing
This is handled by publishers. They have access to large budgets, teams of graphic designers, and marketing channels such as book tours and merchandising. Some business-savvy bloggers are beginning to learn how to market themselves, diminishing the need for publishers.
Distribution
This is handled by publishers. They have access to economies of scale, book production, and distribution channels such as bookseller chains. Blogging and online publishing provides a natural distribution alternative: the Web, diminishing the need for publishers.

Painters/Illustrators

Representation
This is handled by artist agents. They aren’t commonly used, since some artists aren’t aware they exist, don’t know how to find them, or prefer to go it alone.
Marketing
This is handled by art galleries. Larger galleries are able to offer some advertising, though the gallery itself is the main marketing vehicle. Some web-savvy artists also use the Web as a supplementary marketing channel, but still rely heavily on art galleries.
Distribution
This is handled by art galleries and, if the photographer chooses this means of income, stock illustration services. They provide an aggregation point for artwork, making it easier for buyers to find and purchase the art. Some web-savvy artists also set up online stores as a supplementary distribution channel, but still rely heavily on art galleries or stock illustration services.

Photographers

Representation
This is handled by photo agents. They aren’t commonly used, since some photographers aren’t aware they exist, don’t know how to find them, or prefer to go it alone.
Marketing
This is handled by art galleries and photography magazines. Larger galleries are able to offer some advertising, though the gallery itself is the main marketing vehicle. Many web-savvy photographers are increasingly using the Web as their primary marketing channel, especially with the rise of sites like Flickr.
Distribution
This is handled by art galleries and, if the photographer chooses this means of income, stock photography houses. They provide an aggregation point for photographs, making it easier for buyers to find and purchase them. Many web-savvy photographers are increasingly using the Web as their primary distribution channel, though there are difficulties in digital rights, since it’s easy to make digital copies of photographs.

Actors/Actresses

Representation
This is handled by talent agents. They are generally considered to be crucial, since they hold the key to the marketing and distribution channels. There have been no viable alternatives to talent agents in this field.
Marketing
This is also handled by talent agents. They are the ones who promote and sell their clients to various “customers” such as casting directors and production companies. There have been no viable marketing alternatives to talent agents in this field.
Distribution
Since the “product” is the person him/herself, there is no need for a distribution channel, per se.

Filmmakers

Representation
This is handled by talent agents. Independent filmmakers generally don’t use them, preferring instead to go it alone. Online publishing is rapidly becoming an alternative means of self-publishing, diminishing the need for representation.
Marketing
This is handled by movie studios. They have access to large budgets, marketing departments, and marketing channels such as television and billboards. Some web-savvy filmmakers are increasingly using the Web as their primary marketing channel, such as sites like YouTube, diminishing the need for movie studios.
Distribution
This is handled by movie studios. They have access to economies of scale, production facilities, and distribution channels such as movie theater and DVD rental chains. The Web provides a natural distribution alternative, diminishing the need for movie studios. There are difficulties in digital rights, however, since it’s easy to make digital copies of movies.

Musicians

Representation
This is handled by music managers. They are considered crucial by some, though a few are beginning to publish music on their own, diminishing the need for representation.
Marketing
This is handled by record labels. They have access to large budgets, marketing and design departments, and marketing channels such as television and magazines. Some web-savvy musicians are increasingly using the Web as their primary marketing channel, such as MySpace, diminishing the need for record labels.
Distribution
This is handled by record labels. They have access to economies of scale, recording studios, and distribution channels such as online and offline music store chains. Some web-savvy musicians are increasingly using the Web as their primary distribution channel, though there are difficulties in digital rights, since it’s easy to make digital copies of music.

My Prediction for the Music Industry

So what does this mean? A lot of creative professions are experimenting with the Web as a new marketing and distribution channel. For some, it makes sense; for others, it doesn’t—at least, not with the current state of their industry.

I don’t believe the marketing and distribution providers will ever go away completely. Not all creative professionals are business- or web-savvy, nor do they want to be. Some want to concentrate on creating their art, and nothing else. For those professionals, there will always bee a need for someone handling their marketing and distribution needs.

The current entities handling the marketing and distribution will need to evolve, however, if they want to survive. Going back to the music business, record labels have realized that they need new revenue vehicles as CD sales continue to drop. So they’ve been cutting into the musicians’ pockets, as stated in Jeff Leeds’s New York Times article “Squeezing Money From the Music“:

Lately, the major labels have in effect tried to move into the talent management business by demanding that new artists seeking record contracts give their label a cut of concert earnings or T-shirt and merchandise revenue – areas that had once been outside the labels’ bailiwick.

No wonder musicians hate record labels. As much as musicians need marketing and distribution services, record labels that do this are going to chase away more and more musicians. They’re killing the golden geese that lay the golden eggs, so to speak.

What this means is an opportunity for smart competition—i.e. independent record labels who are willing to take on experimental business models. Although the largest record labels still dominate mainstream marketing and distribution channels, as they lose artists (and consequently, revenue), they’ll lose market share in favor of new and evolved players.

Digital rights will also be a concern, though if digital songs become a marketing tool, then digital rights are moot.

New Potential Business Ideas

Here’s a new business idea: You the musician can hire me for a percentage of sales (or a flat reoccurring fee), while I help you market and distribute your music. This could be as simple as operating a web site to getting your songs onto P2P networks. I’d have to have a lot of clients in order to turn a profit however, since margins will be slim. Or a business like iTunes could offer such services.

Another new business idea: Not every musician will have the expertise to create polished, well-edited music. So you can hire me to help you handle the recording and editing of it. Come to my recording studio, or hire me to teach you how to do this on your own. Maybe I can sell you some of the equipment and software too. The margins here are a little better. This isn’t quite an alternative for record labels, but aspiring entrepreneurs could sure consider it. People who can do this well will be in high demand, just as current music producers are.

Another evolved-business idea: You’ll still need someone to manage your gigs, merchandise, commercial licensing, and other revenue streams. I’m basically still your music manager, though with a slightly revised set of responsibilities. Or I could write some software, like Quickbooks, to help you manage your finances. Such software exists already, but none dominate the market or are widely-known.

Evolving industries always means new opportunities. Exciting times, indeed!