Sex Sells

AdultFriendFinder This just in (um, no pun intended). Various, Inc., the parent company of AdultFriendFinder and its vast network of over 25 online personals-related sites, has just been purchased by the Penthouse Media Group.

Michael Arrington of TechCrunch reports that AdultFriendFinder is rumored to make over $300 million annually. Its acquisition price is supposedly anywhere from $500 million to $3 billion. His sources say it’s closer to $500M though.

Since $500M for a $300M business is surprisingly low, I’m guessing the expenses of running a business like AdultFriendFinder are fairly high. Their net profits may be about half of that—say, $166M if you assume the $500M is 3x the profit? Or maybe even less?

AdultFriendFinder supposedly has one of the more profitable affiliate programs out there, which you could use to monetize your blog if personals ads compliment your content. Many a web entrepreneur has made a pretty dime off selling sex. And no, I haven’t.

But that’s not why I wrote about this. Nor did I really care to write about the acquisition (cool news as it is to Various, Inc). Really, I just saw an opportunity to use the title “Sex Sells.” Hehehe…

The Cost of Doing Business with a World Power

Flag of China It’s not easy being the first into a new market. Especially a market as vast and complex as China.

In Their Shoes

Let’s say that you are the founder of an Internet search engine, called, um, Yahooglesoft. As a publically-traded company in a growth industry, you know that the greatest growth opportunities exist globally. So you enter China and slowly navigate its unfamiliar laws. To make things easier, you decide to open an office in Beijing. What better way to learn about this new market than to have a satellite office, right?

However, this new market has restrictions. In order to do business here, you have to comply with their regulations on information censorship. In their eyes, this is everyday life and most of its citizens don’t see it as an evil. These regulations also block harmful sites such as child pornography, so they accept it.

Since information censorship runs counter to your values, this makes you uncomfortable. But several factors motivate you to adopt these regulations: the market alternatives are weak and your offering will benefit many new users, to satisfy your shareholders you need to continue growing the company, and a domestic competitor will surely enter this market if you don’t. So you strive forward, ahead of your competitors.

You’ve also censored your search results before, in France, Germany, and your own home country the United States of America. There’s already a precedent of removing certain search results based on the laws of that particular nation. China just has stricter regulations.

Since the Internet basically operates across a network of wires, the further a signal needs to traverse the wires, the longer a user has to wait for a web page. To solve this, you locate some of your web servers into China, to be closer to your Chinese users. This move puts that data under the legal jurisdiction of China, however. But it vastly improves the user experience, your product, and the enjoyment of your users.

Every so often, the local police ask you to release information about private citizens. Refusing them means blocking a police investigation and possible jail time. Not wanting jail, your employees turn over this information each time. In most cases, such investigations are to trace murderers, thieves, and other criminals.

But in one case, the information is used to incarcerate a journalist. As the founder of Yahooglesoft, you don’t hear about this until it’s made the headlines. You’re aghast. You condemn the actions of China, yet you know your employees simply did what they were supposed to, what anyone would have done under those circumstances. There was no way they could have known about the consequences of their actions.

So if you put yourself in these shoes, and without the ability to tell the future, what would you have done in this situation?

Yahoo! and the Case of Shi Tao

Shi Tao Yahoo! (YHOO) was the first US-based Internet search engine to enter China. In 1999 it opened up a Beijing office and launched its Chinese-language search engine. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) entered the market later and enjoyed a second-mover advantage by being able to learn from Yahoo!’s actions.

In 2004, Chinese authorities discovered that a private citizen had sent an email containing what it deemed as “top state secrets” to an overseas organization using Yahoo!’s Chinese email service, according to EastSouthWestNorth’s article “The Case for Shi Tao“. The authorities approached the Yahoo! Hong Kong office with a judicial warrant to obtain the sender’s IP information. The warrant didn’t say why this information was needed, and “it is reportedly customary for e-mail service and Internet access providers to transmit information to the police about their clients when shown a court order,” according to Reporters Without Borders (RSF)’s article “Information supplied by Yahoo! helped journalist Shi Tao get 10 years in prison“.

In the comprehensive article “How Multinational Internet Companies assist Government Censorship in China” by Human Rights Watch, Michael Callahan, Yahoo!’s General Counsel, is quoted as saying, “When we receive a demand from law enforcement authorized under the law of the country in which we operate, we must comply.” Not doing so means legal action against the company and its employees. Callahan continued: “Law enforcement agencies in China, the United States, and elsewhere typically do not explain to information technology companies or other businesses why they demand specific information regarding certain individuals.”

It turned out that the data the authorities needed wasn’t located in Hong Kong—it was located on servers in mainland China. Independent research from RSF confirmed this as well. So the employees of Yahoo! China did what any law-abiding citizen would do when presented with an ominous judicial warrant; they did as the warrant requested.

This led to the arrest of Shi Tao in 2004, a journalist, writer and poet. According to Wikipedia, “the Chinese authorities confiscated his computer and documents without showing any proper permit or document, and warned his family members not to talk about it with others.” He was sentenced to ten years in prison.

This past Wednesday, Yahoo! co-founder Jerry Yang and Callahan testified in a hearing called by Representative Tom Lantos, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The purpose was to determine if Callahan intentionally gave misleading testimony in February 2006 on this case. “While technologically and financially you are giants, morally you are pygmies,” Lantos chided. RSF also condemned Yahoo!: “We already knew that Yahoo! collaborates enthusiastically with the Chinese regime in questions of censorship, and now we know it is a Chinese police informant as well.” Even Zhao Jing (also known as “Michael Anti”), a Chinese journalist whose blog was removed from MSN Spaces by Microsoft at the request of Chinese authorities, had these scathing words: “Yahoo is a sellout. Chinese people hate Yahoo.”

Yahoo! has also been implicated in the jailings of three other Chinese journalists: Lijun Jiang in 2002 (four-year imprisonment), Wang Xiaoning in 2002 (ten-year imprisonment), and Li Zhi in 2003 (eight-year imprisonment), all of whom used Yahoo!’s Chinese services.

Reaction from Chinese Bloggers

Map of China Words like “repressive regime” and “totalitarian” are used often in the Western press to describe China. Especially when it comes to censorship. But there are two sides to every story. It’s easier to criticize and assign your own values to another society than it is to try and understand them.

From Zhao Jing (Michael Anti)

In a statement on his web site (and translated into English), Zhao writes:

When foreigners repeatedly use “totalitarian” to describe China, this is a deep shame for me as a Chinese person. This shame cannot ever be forgotten.

These kind of sentiments cannot be understood by foreigners. When the US Congress holds a hearing about Internet freedom in China, this is an American affair. When the US Congress proposes Internet freedom of information legislation, this is truly treating the freedom of the Chinese netizens as maids that they can dress up as they see fit.

From Angry Chinese Blogger

An article on by Angry Chinese Blogger entitled “Truth, Justice – or a near sighted attack on the Chinese way” also adds (emphasis his):

Critics have noted that, while the US administration, the private sector, and the NGO sector, will be well represented at the committee hearing, there will be no panel for representatives of the Chinese government. Leading some observers to accuse the committee of ‘judging a foreign state using domestic standards‘ and of ‘acknowledging only to two sides of a three sided confrontation‘.

In a previous article, “Aiding the enemy: Congress’s New Dilema“, he pointed out the hypocrisy of China’s critics. One of the loudest is RSF, a France-based organization that “fights against censorship and laws that undermine press freedom.” Ironically, the French government once mandated Yahoo! France to remove all neo-Nazi memorabilia from its auctions. Angry Chinese Blogger writes:

While, under French law, the sale of items, promotion of ideologies, or denial of war crimes, relating to the the Nazi, is forbidden, all of these activities are protected as basic human rights under the US constitution; which guarantees freedom of expression and association, even in the case of revisionism and hate speeches.

As such, the removal of Nazi item from Yahoo’s French website, under local law, could be constituted as illegal censorship under any new US laws governing complicity in overseas censorship.

RSF also publishes a Worldwide Press Freedom Index that rates every country in the world. Iceland is ranked #1, while France is #31. The US is further down the list at #48, below Nicaragua, Israel, and South Africa. China is #163.

Angry Chinese Blogger also wonders about the good-hearted intentions of the US government. In 2002, Lantos and Congressman Chris Cox proposed the creation of an “Office of Global Internet Freedom”, which later materialized as the Global Internet Freedom Task Force (GIFT).

Despite the apparent benevolent intentions of the proposed body and bill, critics have however questioned whether they would really be a force for the preservation and promotion of global internet freedoms, or if they would merely be another avenue for the furtherance of US ideologies. With critics asking whether such an office would, for example, fight with equal vigor to protect websites promoting socialism in South America, as it would sites promoting US style democracy in China.

From EastSouthWestNorth

In EastSouthWestNorth’s article “Yahoo! and the case of Shi Tao“, the author examines the need for censorship.

Yes, there is true outrage about suppression of freedom of speech. But the answer is not to say that no censorship whatsoever shall be allowed at all. There are in fact legitimate reasons for some things to be censored (for example, child pornography is universally abhorred).

He further explains the need for some Internet censorship in the article “Hinano Mizuki: The Case for Internet Censoring in China“, which argues that pornography should be censored, not just from children, but from everyone. In Western societies, nudity is generally more acceptable. Not so in many Eastern cultures. In Angry Chinese Blogger’s About Me page, he writes: “I have a number of pet hates, including commercialism, cultural imperialism, and the insidious way that loose western values appear to have crept into Asian society.”

EastSouthWestNorth also posted a brief in response to a number of articles from RConversation, the blog of Rebecca MacKinnon, an American journalist and assistant professor in Hong Kong. One in particular, “China censorship: Microsoft’s defence“, motivated EastSouthWestNorth to write:

You can condemn these companies for all you want, but in the end there has to be a practical and workable solution for them. Rejecting every single Chinese government warrant is NOT the answer, because you are in fact aiding and abetting real criminals most of the time. I personally do not see how this can be done. The change will eventually have to come from inside China about the law.

From Danwei

Dror Poleg of Danwei, a marketing manager for an international investment company in China, argues for a more free-market approach to changing China’s Internet censorhip regulations in the article, “China and the Internet: It’s access, stupid.

The web, with or without Tibetan rebels or the BBC, is the main driver of change in China. Concerns should focus on the fact that currently only 110 million people in China have Internet access. This comprises the world’s second largest online market, but counts only for 10% of China’s population.

US lawmakers should keep that in mind when approaching China. It is necessary to set ground rules for U.S. companies operating abroad, but as far as China is concerned, the imperative should be to allow access to as many people as possible. After that, when 400 million Chinese citizens are online, leave it to the market to bring down the walls.

From the New York Times

In the thorough New York Times article “Google’s China Problem (and China’s Google Problem)“, author Clive Thompson writes about a discussion he had with Kai-Fu Lee, who founded the Microsoft Research division in Asia in 1998 and Google China in 2005.

But as Lee and I talked about how the Internet was transforming China, he offered one opinion that seemed telling: the Chinese students he meets and employs, Lee said, do not hunger for democracy. “People are actually quite free to talk about the subject,” he added, meaning democracy and human rights in China. “I don’t think they care that much. I think people would say: ‘Hey, U.S. democracy, that’s a good form of government. Chinese government, good and stable, that’s a good form of government. Whatever, as long as I get to go to my favorite Web site, see my friends, live happily.'”

He also reports that the Chinese government does not hide its censorship regulations. It’s well-known throughout the country that information is censored. In one example, a group of Harvard researchers presented a study on the Chinese Internet to a Chinese professor. The professor related the following story: “I talked to them and asked, ‘What were your results?’ They said, ‘We think the Chinese government tries to control the Internet.’ I just laughed. I said, ‘We know that!'” Another professor added, “Chinese people have a 5,000-year view of history. You ban a Web site, and they’re like: ‘Oh, give it time. It’ll come back.'”

The Western press often misunderstands what exactly is censored. Zhao, who has no reason to defend the Chinese government after they removed his blog, told Thompson: “If you talk every day online and criticize the government, they don’t care, because it’s just talk. But if you organize — even if it’s just three or four people — that’s what they crack down on. It’s not speech; it’s organizing.”

If you look at China’s past and history of media censorship, the Internet has already made radical changes to the Chinese culture, as Zhao tells him:

Before, he said, the party controlled every single piece of media, but then Chinese began logging onto discussion boards and setting up blogs, and it was as if a bell jar had lifted. Even if you were still too cautious to talk about politics, the mere idea that you could publicly state your opinion about anything — the weather, the local sports scene — felt like a bit of a revolution.

There is also no master blacklist of sites and words. Companies must interpret the vague regulations themselves. This confusion has lead to rampant self-censorship by Chinese ISPs to a degree probably stricter than the government intended. Thompson asked Xin Ye, founder of Sohu.com if dealing with these vague regulations was difficult. “I’ll tell you this, it’s not more hard than dealing with Sarbanes and Oxley,” he answered. “I don’t want to call it censorship. It’s like in every country: they have a bias. There are taboos you can’t talk about in the U.S., and everyone knows it.”

The Competition Angle

Chinese Internet Companies As US companies face criticism and possible legal repercussions back home, Chinese competitors continue forward.

Chinese companies already have a home-field advantage of innately understanding the market. For example, according to Thompson in his NYT article, Chinese businesspeople “rarely rely on e-mail, because they find the idea of leaving messages to be socially awkward. They prefer live exchanges, which means they gravitate to mobile phones and short text messages instead.” Local competitors were able to build products catering to this behavior before their US counterparts could.

As Yahoo found, these cultural nuances made the sites run by American companies feel simply foreign to Chinese users — and drove them instead to local portals designed by Chinese entrepreneurs. These sites, including Sina.com and Sohu.com, had less useful search engines, but they were full of links to chat rooms and government-approved Chinese-language news sites.

Some of the major Chinese Internet companies are:

Wall Street Journal’s article “Yahoo’s Lashing Highlights Risks Of China Market” notes that “while Yahoo and rivals like Google tried to comply with China’s local laws, [doing so] ultimately backfired on them domestically.”

“To be doing business in China, or anywhere else in the world, we have to comply with local law,” Yang is quoted as saying in the Washington Post article “Yahoo Says It Gave China Internet Data“. “I do not like the outcome of what happens with these things, but we have to follow the law.” But what if by following one country’s laws, you break your own country’s laws?

(Ironically, the US government itself has been accused of censorship when it filed a court order urging Google to remove the anti-Scientology organization Operation Clambake from its search results.)

Radio Free Asia points out this apparent catch-22 in “Rights Group Slams Google, Yahoo! Self-Censorship In China“:

Sources in Washington doubted whether any formal sanctions could be put in place to prevent companies from limiting freedom of expression in order to maximize profits, without risking charges of censorship themselves.

“The kind of regulation that would allow you to come after these guys for what they’re doing could also be used to silence them, could be used to impinge on their freedom of expression,” a lawyer with a Congressionally mandated organization told RFA.

This is what Angry Chinese Blogger calls an “Economic Paradox” (emphasis his):

In addition to moral issues, Congress also faces a number of stark concerns from the business community. With US companies stating bluntly that, if they refuse to comply with Chinese demands, and the requirement that all web services must be hardwired for censorship, China will simply switch to other foreign companies that are more willing to please.

Warning that, In effect, any legislation to enforce domestic constitutional standards on companies working in China could ‘hand American contracts, and American jobs, to oversea competitors who are not ‘burdened’ by such regulations’.

He offers this quote from Sonia Arrison, the Director of Technology Studies of the Pacific Research Institute, a free-market think tank in San Francisco, CA: “If Yahoo [doesn’t do] business in China, someone else will.”

On top of the Chinese companies’ home-field advantage, government regulations could add a significant hinderance to the success of US companies in China. “Some observers have cautioned Congress not to rush into the matter, and to be wary of producing ‘knee jerk’ legislation that could be counter productive, or even dangerous,” adds Angry Chinese Blogger.

Which businesses could be effected? There a fair number of US companies that have been implicated in aiding the Chinese government in Internet censorship, including:

Lessons for Businesses Going Global

Hong Kong Buildings

Please don’t get me wrong. I don’t mean to make light of the deplorable imprisonment of Shi Tao or his colleagues. While I understand that the Chinese government is trying to use Internet censorship as a tool to prevent what it feels is morally reprehensible content, it’s my cultural bias to believe it is abusing its authority by censoring politically different viewpoints as well.

Also, consider this sociological point of view: every time you preventing a group of people from seeing something, you’ll make a few in that group want to see it even more. It’s like putting a “Do not push” sign over a button and watching everyone push it. China’s Internet censorship plan may actually strengthen its opposition more than it is protecting itself.

It is easy to criticize Yahoo!’s actions in hindsight, especially with a US perspective and value system. But this isn’t a black-and-white case. The question shouldn’t be, “Is Yahoo! good or evil?” It should be, “What can we learn from this situation?” Here’s my take from the business perspective.

  • Sometimes Being Second is Better

    In the early days of Internet businesses, there was (and sometimes still is) a strong belief around the value of the first-mover advantage. While there certainly are benefits to being first, there is also a high level of risk for first-movers in uncertain markets. Countries whose cultural thinking may be very different or contain complex & vague regulations, like China, are a good example. In such markets, there can be an advantage in letting the someone else take all the punches. Microsoft and Google both learned from Yahoo!’s actions and have not set up servers that contain personally-identifiable information within China, for instance.

  • Be Prepared for Worst-Case Scenarios

    As Andrew Grove says, “Only the paranoid survive.” While it’s highly unlikely for Yahoo! to have forseen the consequences of locating their servers in China, a paranoid audit of China’s regulations may have netted this worst-case scenario. This doesn’t mean stalling out and taking no action; your business can’t grow if you don’t act. It means being prepared for & able to manage the potential risks of worst-case scenarios with any number of safeguards, including and perhaps especially legal safeguards.

    Human Rights Watch also adds this best practice:

    Human Rights Watch believes that it is likely impossible for an Internet company to avoid intentionally, negligently, or unknowingly participating in political repression when its user data is housed on computer servers physically located within the legal jurisdiction of the People’s Republic of China. Thus the first step towards human rights-compliant corporate conduct in China is to store user data outside of the PRC (or for that matter, outside any country with a clear and well-documented track record of prosecuting internationally protected speech as a criminal act).

  • Understand Your Customer

    This concept is as old as apple pie, and just as good. When dealing with a foreign culture, it’s extremely important to understand the mentality, traditions, mannerisms, behaviors, and values of the people. This can be done with research reports, hiring international consultants, or working with a partner in the target country. According to Thompson in his NYT article, Baidu.com “invented a tool that allows people to create instant discussion groups based on popular search queries,” which capitalized on their users’ preference for online chatting, because it understood their users better than their US competitors.

  • Understand Your Government’s Role

    This one’s a bit controversial and I am still debating it. Not everyone agrees that governments should get involved with business affairs (nor to its level of involvement). However, in the global marketplace, many governments are involved. Every government, to some extent, sets up trade barriers to protect local businesses, while hopefully not stifling foreign investments. In some cases, without your government’s support, it can be difficult or impossible to enter a foreign market. But how do you get your government’s support? Throw money at them? I’m not sure that’s in the best interest of the people, though it’s certainly what many companies do.

What other business lessons can be learned here?

Ads, Coffee, and Good Karma

I decided to remove the banner ads from this site. They slowed down the site (by slowing the browser’s parsing & rendering of the client-side code), were annoying & irrelevant (why would readers of this site want to see hentai ads?), and detracted from the content. Their earnings, though nice, weren’t worth their negative impact on the user experience.

Instead, I’ve decided to humbly ask for free coffee, drinks, and books. Hehe.

If you like this site and the content here, would prefer to see it without banner ads, and are in need of some good karma, buy me a coffee! Me and my caffeinated heart thank you.





Buy me a book from my Amazon.com Wish List


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Optimizing Google for Google

Google Now for some Friday fun. You’ve heard of Search Engine Optimization (SEO), yea? That’s when you do things to your website to make it rank higher in a search engine’s search results. A whole industry has sprouted around knowing how to do these techniques well and consulting on such techniques.

Coincidentally, I’ve learned quite a bit of SEO myself too, after having worked at Yahoo! (YHOO), so if you need an SEO consultant, let me know!

All shameless plugging aside, optimizing for Google (GOOG) has become such a science that it just begs for a parody.

A parody, you say? Why, Here’s one!

This is the brainchild of the hilarious Gene McKenna of Kango.com. He built this about two weeks ago and it’s been tossed around the Web quite a bit since then (so if this is old news to you, my apologies). Props to Gene though, for much hilarity!

The Value of Software Engineers

dshen.com Dave Shen just wrote an entry that made me laugh. Not in a Haha What a Funny Joke! way. More in a Hells Yea That’s Sure True way.

He wrote, “It Sucks to Not Be an Engineer…“, and talks about the difficulty of trying to start up a Web-based business without knowing how to programming or having software engineers by your side.

For non-engineers, it’s a tough to build a Web 2.0 company without being an engineer, or having one as a partner. You could hire an outsourced engineering firm but that could run your costs up to $30k to $100k per month for many months. You could raise that but you’d need 6-12 months to build something.

Best bet: Find an engineer or two and bring them on board with your concept.

Second best bet: buy Ruby on Rails for Dummies and start programming.

True, too true. I know of a bunch of entrepreneurs who are searching endlessly for software engineers as well. Even those with growing businesses need more engineers.

Which means it’s a damn good time to be a software engineer. Hehe.

Pretty Independent Machine: New Opportunities

Ths music industry has been on my mind this week. First, it was NIN and Radiohead going independent, then it was how free songs were going to effect musicians.

Now I’m wondering: What will the role of record labels be if songs become freely available to the public, as opposed to within paid CDs or digital files?

And to that, I also wonder: Are there any helpful comparisons to make with the fields of writing, painting, photography, acting, or filmmaking? Perhaps, in these comparisons, there will be a demonstrated example of needing, or not needing, a record label.

All are creative fields with professionals seeking to make a living. So I’m sure there are some similarities, which I’m going to simplify into the need for marketing and distribution. And in all of these fields, the way to get the proper marketing and distribution (as well as other connections) is through representation by some kind of agent or manager.

(Disclaimer: I’m not a professional in any of these fields, so please let me know if anything I write here is incorrect.)

Writers

Representation
This is handled by literary agents. They are generally considered to be crucial, since they hold the key to the marketing and distribution channels. Blogging and online publishing is rapidly becoming an alternative means of self-publishing, diminishing the need for representation.
Marketing
This is handled by publishers. They have access to large budgets, teams of graphic designers, and marketing channels such as book tours and merchandising. Some business-savvy bloggers are beginning to learn how to market themselves, diminishing the need for publishers.
Distribution
This is handled by publishers. They have access to economies of scale, book production, and distribution channels such as bookseller chains. Blogging and online publishing provides a natural distribution alternative: the Web, diminishing the need for publishers.

Painters/Illustrators

Representation
This is handled by artist agents. They aren’t commonly used, since some artists aren’t aware they exist, don’t know how to find them, or prefer to go it alone.
Marketing
This is handled by art galleries. Larger galleries are able to offer some advertising, though the gallery itself is the main marketing vehicle. Some web-savvy artists also use the Web as a supplementary marketing channel, but still rely heavily on art galleries.
Distribution
This is handled by art galleries and, if the photographer chooses this means of income, stock illustration services. They provide an aggregation point for artwork, making it easier for buyers to find and purchase the art. Some web-savvy artists also set up online stores as a supplementary distribution channel, but still rely heavily on art galleries or stock illustration services.

Photographers

Representation
This is handled by photo agents. They aren’t commonly used, since some photographers aren’t aware they exist, don’t know how to find them, or prefer to go it alone.
Marketing
This is handled by art galleries and photography magazines. Larger galleries are able to offer some advertising, though the gallery itself is the main marketing vehicle. Many web-savvy photographers are increasingly using the Web as their primary marketing channel, especially with the rise of sites like Flickr.
Distribution
This is handled by art galleries and, if the photographer chooses this means of income, stock photography houses. They provide an aggregation point for photographs, making it easier for buyers to find and purchase them. Many web-savvy photographers are increasingly using the Web as their primary distribution channel, though there are difficulties in digital rights, since it’s easy to make digital copies of photographs.

Actors/Actresses

Representation
This is handled by talent agents. They are generally considered to be crucial, since they hold the key to the marketing and distribution channels. There have been no viable alternatives to talent agents in this field.
Marketing
This is also handled by talent agents. They are the ones who promote and sell their clients to various “customers” such as casting directors and production companies. There have been no viable marketing alternatives to talent agents in this field.
Distribution
Since the “product” is the person him/herself, there is no need for a distribution channel, per se.

Filmmakers

Representation
This is handled by talent agents. Independent filmmakers generally don’t use them, preferring instead to go it alone. Online publishing is rapidly becoming an alternative means of self-publishing, diminishing the need for representation.
Marketing
This is handled by movie studios. They have access to large budgets, marketing departments, and marketing channels such as television and billboards. Some web-savvy filmmakers are increasingly using the Web as their primary marketing channel, such as sites like YouTube, diminishing the need for movie studios.
Distribution
This is handled by movie studios. They have access to economies of scale, production facilities, and distribution channels such as movie theater and DVD rental chains. The Web provides a natural distribution alternative, diminishing the need for movie studios. There are difficulties in digital rights, however, since it’s easy to make digital copies of movies.

Musicians

Representation
This is handled by music managers. They are considered crucial by some, though a few are beginning to publish music on their own, diminishing the need for representation.
Marketing
This is handled by record labels. They have access to large budgets, marketing and design departments, and marketing channels such as television and magazines. Some web-savvy musicians are increasingly using the Web as their primary marketing channel, such as MySpace, diminishing the need for record labels.
Distribution
This is handled by record labels. They have access to economies of scale, recording studios, and distribution channels such as online and offline music store chains. Some web-savvy musicians are increasingly using the Web as their primary distribution channel, though there are difficulties in digital rights, since it’s easy to make digital copies of music.

My Prediction for the Music Industry

So what does this mean? A lot of creative professions are experimenting with the Web as a new marketing and distribution channel. For some, it makes sense; for others, it doesn’t—at least, not with the current state of their industry.

I don’t believe the marketing and distribution providers will ever go away completely. Not all creative professionals are business- or web-savvy, nor do they want to be. Some want to concentrate on creating their art, and nothing else. For those professionals, there will always bee a need for someone handling their marketing and distribution needs.

The current entities handling the marketing and distribution will need to evolve, however, if they want to survive. Going back to the music business, record labels have realized that they need new revenue vehicles as CD sales continue to drop. So they’ve been cutting into the musicians’ pockets, as stated in Jeff Leeds’s New York Times article “Squeezing Money From the Music“:

Lately, the major labels have in effect tried to move into the talent management business by demanding that new artists seeking record contracts give their label a cut of concert earnings or T-shirt and merchandise revenue – areas that had once been outside the labels’ bailiwick.

No wonder musicians hate record labels. As much as musicians need marketing and distribution services, record labels that do this are going to chase away more and more musicians. They’re killing the golden geese that lay the golden eggs, so to speak.

What this means is an opportunity for smart competition—i.e. independent record labels who are willing to take on experimental business models. Although the largest record labels still dominate mainstream marketing and distribution channels, as they lose artists (and consequently, revenue), they’ll lose market share in favor of new and evolved players.

Digital rights will also be a concern, though if digital songs become a marketing tool, then digital rights are moot.

New Potential Business Ideas

Here’s a new business idea: You the musician can hire me for a percentage of sales (or a flat reoccurring fee), while I help you market and distribute your music. This could be as simple as operating a web site to getting your songs onto P2P networks. I’d have to have a lot of clients in order to turn a profit however, since margins will be slim. Or a business like iTunes could offer such services.

Another new business idea: Not every musician will have the expertise to create polished, well-edited music. So you can hire me to help you handle the recording and editing of it. Come to my recording studio, or hire me to teach you how to do this on your own. Maybe I can sell you some of the equipment and software too. The margins here are a little better. This isn’t quite an alternative for record labels, but aspiring entrepreneurs could sure consider it. People who can do this well will be in high demand, just as current music producers are.

Another evolved-business idea: You’ll still need someone to manage your gigs, merchandise, commercial licensing, and other revenue streams. I’m basically still your music manager, though with a slightly revised set of responsibilities. Or I could write some software, like Quickbooks, to help you manage your finances. Such software exists already, but none dominate the market or are widely-known.

Evolving industries always means new opportunities. Exciting times, indeed!

Pretty Independent Machine: Songs as Promotions

TechCrunch vs Profy.Com This Tuesday’s post about NIN and Radiohead going independent has been on my mind. So here’s a part 2.

Now, I’m not the biggest fan of current CD prices. I don’t think anybody is. So when I read TechCrunch articles like Michael Arrington’s “The Inevitable March of Recorded Music Towards Free“, I’m filled with glee.

He’s basically arguing that the economics of recorded music will eventually drive all music to be free.

His argument has been met with some criticism, however, most notably from Paul Glazowski of Profy.Com. Glazowski argues in his post, “TechCrunch’s Founder Says Recorded Music To Eventually Be ‘Free’; Here’s Why He’s Wrong“, that there is still a cost to recording music, which will prevent it from being completely free.

This discussion got me thinking. If digital songs become free, how will that effect musicians? Listeners will love it because, hey, who doesn’t love free stuff? But how will it effect the livelihood of professional musicians?

As I understand it, a musician makes money from:

  • Album & song sales (CDs, iTunes, etc)
  • Live performances
  • Merchandising (t-shirts, posters, etc)
  • Commercial licensing (using your songs for commercials)

Not all of these provide income at the same levels. I don’t think there’s a common ratio, but album sales generally account for a small percentage, while the others offer more, according to Chris Arnold’s NPR article, “Band Tries to Make It Big Without Going Broke“.

So if songs become free, that shouldn’t gravely effect their livelihoods—since paid songs don’t effect their livelihood much already.

Also, if song distribution is no longer a means of revenue, its value changes. It becomes… perhaps… a new marketing channel?

Such is already the case in China, where music pirating has made profits from CD sales drop to zero, so writes Kevin Maney for USA Today in the article, “If pirating grows, it may not be the end of music world“, written in May 2005.

Yu Quan, like every music act in China, gets almost no income from CD sales, even though millions of its CDs have been sold. As soon as a CD is made, the pirates are on the street, offering them for a fraction of the retail price. Stores sell pirate copies. Legitimate CDs all but vanish.

So artists have to regard CDs as essentially promotional tools, not as end products. Yu Quan makes money by performing concerts, getting endorsement deals and appearing in commercials. If people hear and like Yu Quan’s songs on pirated CDs, at least they’ll be more likely to come to the concerts and buy what the duo endorses.

The primary revenue vehicles are now live performances, merchandising, commercial licensing—and even commercial endorsements and corporate sponsorships (though only the most popular acts can tout those).

So I agree with Arrington that the price of digital songs is being driven to free. But I don’t believe it’s just the economics of the situation.

My guess is that piracy and P2P networks figure larger in the equation than he thinks, especially since teenagers (and younger) are such prolific users. They are the audience of tomorrow; their habits now will lay the foundation for the landscape we’ll soon be facing.

A paradigm shift from looking at digital songs as promotional vehicles instead of income sources will also precipitate the drive to free. And this, in my opinion, is a good thing—especially for musicians, though maybe not record labels. If musicians don’t need a record label to package their CDs and market them anymore, what will they need them for, if they need them at all?

I think I have an answer for that, which I’ll write about tomorrow. (Ah, the suspense.)

Pretty Independent Machine

NIN and Radiohead So it begins.

Trent Reznor from Nine Inch Nails just announced that they are now an independent entity, apart from any music label or recording contract:

Hello everyone. I’ve waited a LONG time to be able to make the following announcement: as of right now Nine Inch Nails is a totally free agent, free of any recording contract with any label. I have been under recording contracts for 18 years and have watched the business radically mutate from one thing to something inherently very different and it gives me great pleasure to be able to finally have a direct relationship with the audience as I see fit and appropriate. Look for some announcements in the near future regarding 2008. Exciting times, indeed.

This is the second A-List band to do this. Radiohead‘s recording contract expired after their last release in 2003, and they never sought to get another contract. Then, just a week ago, they announced that their next album will be released as a digital download only. In an interview with Time Magazine, Singer Thom Yorke said:

“I like the people at our record company, but the time is at hand when you have to ask why anyone needs one. And, yes, it probably would give us some perverse pleasure to say ‘Fuck you’ to this decaying business model.”

You can download their new album, In Rainbows, anytime after October 10. Also, you only have to pay whatever you want. That’s right: You name the price.

(Another small independent artist, a female vocalist, did this first, about a year ago. I can’t find her site or any info about her though. Anyone know who she is?)

It’s interesting to see these large acts go the way of smaller, independent musicians, such as Jonathan Coulton, who is one of the larger independent acts on the web. He’s most known for his songs Code Monkey, Baby Got Back (a Sir Mix-a-Lot cover), and Re: Your Brains. Coulton has a significant cult following and sells his MP3s for only one US dollar each. This, plus his live performances and various other projects, haven’t earned him a gold-plated Rolls Royce yet. Though, according to an interview with Quick Stop, Coulton says “…in some parts of the country, I’d be making a decent living.”

So being an independent musician without a record label or contract, what does Coulton think about all this? In regards to the Radiohead move, he writes:

I think this is a great move for them, and at the very least it’s an experiment the rest of us can learn from – I hope they’ll be forthcoming about the numbers they get. If I had to guess I’d say this plan will get the music to more ears, possibly generate less gross revenue on digital sales, but vastly improve their bottom line – their profit margin is going to be a lot higher than it would be with a label/distributor, plus this is likely to drive plenty more people to live shows and merchandise.

Exciting times, indeed.