The Click-through Rate of Google’s Search Results Page

This is an oldie but a goodie. SEO specialists know this already. You should too, if your internet business depends on traffic from Google at all.

Back in August 2006, AOL (TWX) released the search records of 500k users collected over a three month period. The data was removed as quickly as it was published, due to privacy concerns. It is still available on various mirrors on the internet, however (nothing is ever completely erased from the internet).

Then Richard Hearne of Red Cardinal took the data and figured out the average click-through rate of each position on Google’s search results page:

SEO specialists and internet marketers can then use this data, cross-reference it with the Google’s Keyword Tool, and figure out potentially how much traffic they can receive per keyword if they’re able to achieve a high search engine rank.

How reliable is this data? Pretty reliable, since the selection size is so large. There may be some bias (they were all AOL users), but I’m guessing it’s fairly accurate. Ed Dale believes it’s pretty spot on.

A couple of months later, several researchers from Cornell University did an eye-tracking analysis of Google’s search results page. They came up with slightly higher click-through percentages, as Oleg Ishenko of SEO Researcher shows with the following heat map:

The Cornell study is less reliable, however. Their sample set was only 26 undergraduate students who performed 397 Google queries in a usability lab.

In either case, these results show a strong click-through rate for the first result (no duh). The rates taper down until the last result, which enjoys a slight uptick. It should also be noted that this data only shows rates for organic search results and not PPC/sponsored listings.

Cool stuff though. I love free data.

The First Rule of Marketing

The first rule of marketing: you do not talk about marketing… Oh wait, wrong club.

The first rule of marketing: you are not your customer.

It sounds obvious when you hear it. But violating it is as easy as jaywalking down a Manhattan street. You may do it sometimes without even thinking about it.

This past week, I’ve heard two colleagues argue endlessly about one of their product offerings – a series of content articles. They disagreed with the topics in a third colleague’s articles. “Low brow”, “poorly targeted”, and “aimed at the wrong people” were criticisms they lobbied.

That’s fine and all. But the third colleague’s articles were the most popular offering they had. Their customers clearly loved these topics.

“These are the wrong customers,” continued the first two. “The ones we want don’t want content like this.”

Cursory market research into the current customers indicated that… well… these are the customers they’re targeting. They fall squarely within their target demographic.

“Well, we don’t want those particular customers. They are the wrong people for us!”

Huh. Since when did a business not want it’s current customers? It’s hard enough to get customers, but once you have some, who in their right mind wouldn’t want them anymore?

“Well, okay, then our customers just don’t know what they want. They don’t want these topics. They don’t need these articles.”

Ah. Since when do marketers know what their customers want better than the customers do? Remember the first rule of marketing: you are not your customer. You don’t know exactly what they want.

How is such an impasse solved? By market research, talking to your customers, and getting to know them well. Marketing shouldn’t be driven by your own opinions. It should be driven by objective research.

Use surveys, interviews, comment forms, something – anything – to get actual customer feedback. You may be surprised by what you hear. And you may learn something about your true customers too.

How to Publish a Popular Non-Fiction Book

Kathy Bates in the movie Misery So you want to write a book, huh?

A few friends of mine are interested in writing non-fiction books. I myself am also an aspiring author and would love to pen something when I retire, though I haven’t decided if I want to do fiction, non-fiction, or both.

In the meantime, to help all of us along, I threw together this guide for aspiring non-fiction writers.

  1. Write one chapter

    Start out by writing one chapter. It doesn’t necessarily have to be the first chapter—any chapter will do. This will be a representation of what your book could be. It doesn’t even have to be perfect—editors will help you polish your book later. Doing this will also jump start you into action.

    If it helps, write an outline for your entire book too. For non-fiction books especially, this tends to help. Your outline can lay out all the chapters, sections, sub-sections, whatever. It can also help you structure your research and any interviewing you may want to do.

    One formula I’ve seen work in contemporary books like Tipping Point, Blink, Freakonomics, Emotional Intelligence, Social Intelligence, Wisdom of Crowds, Fooled By Randomness, The World Is Flat, etc, is:

    • Start the chapter with an anecdote. The personal, “human” angle draws people in.
    • Go into the guts of the theory, the whats, hows, whys, etc.
    • Back up the guts with any data & research studies/reports you’ve found.

    You can pick up a book like Blink and read the first chapter to get a feel for how it’s structured. That will give you a good idea of how to organize a chapter. It’s a contemporary formula that seems to work for the mainstream audience right now.

    If you find yourself in a flow and want to write more than one chapter, go for it.

  2. Find an agent

    This part is kind of tedious. You’ll need to look through a combination of books & websites. On the web, there is WritersNet.

    Bookwise, there is Writer’s Market and Literary Marketplace, both of which you can flip through in a bookstore. The Guide to Book Publishers, Editors, and Literary Agents is also a good guide on selecting the right agent.

    Basically, you want an agent who does books similar to yours. Try to avoid agents that charge you a fee if possible, unless that agent seems to really kick ass. Make a list of 15-20 agents.

  3. Write a query letter

    Next, you’ll need to write a short letter to each agent. This letter serves as a hook to catch them and reel them in. Just make sure you avoid cliches and ending your sentences with prepositions. You can find some good outlines for query letters online.

  4. Send out query letters

    Send out your query letters to all 15-20 agents you’ve found. Some agents will request specific items, like sample chapters or a synopsis/outline/proposal/etc. Tailor your submission to each agent with the items requested.

    If one asks for a sample chapter, just send him/her one, even if you’ve written more. What you want to do is to give the agent a representation of what your book could be. Agents don’t care to read your entire manuscript right now. They’ll have editors to do that later.

  5. Wait then follow-up

    Remember, you only need 1 agent to say Yes to you. Expect many rejections. That’s just part of the biz. As you wait, go forward and write more chapters.

    Give yourself a month, then follow up with each agent politely. If they still don’t respond, then assume they’ve passed on your book. After two months, if you’ve still gotten no acceptances, start at step #2 again and find another 20 agents.

    I’ve read stories about how some writers plaster their walls with rejection letters. Even popular authors could warm themselves all winter with a fireplace and these letters. So don’t lose heart. The name of the game here is tenacity and perseverance. You’ve come too far to quit now!

    There are lots of good online guides that describe the proces of finding an agent. About.com has a good one—just ignore the part where this guide says you need a finished manuscript; that’s not true anymore.

  6. Work with your literary agent

    Once you’ve secured an agent, he/she will walk you through the rest of the book publication process, like finding a publisher, getting an advance, and getting editors to help with your writing. Be respectful of your agent, but remember that they’re working for you, not the other way around. They make money if you make money; you’re their boss.

If it sounds daunting, it is and it isn’t. I have a few friends who are published. They described the hardest part as doing all the writing and research. And it’ll be worth it once you’re on Oprah! (Make sure you jump onto her couch too.)

Good luck! Don’t forget to thank me in your credits!

Goodbye Scrabulous

I’m sad. The makers of Scrabulous have decided to disable their game for all North American users. Sniff.

This is the result of a struggle with Hasbro (HAS) and a suit filed against the Brothers Agarwalla—Scrabulous’ founders—for violating copyright law under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act.

Facebook Scrabulous vs Hasbro Scrabble

Fans of Scrabulous are now in an uproar. Don Reisinger of Masable says this move makes Hasbro look stupid. The official SCRABBLE® Facebook app is littered with comments like, “Boo, hiss. Way to alienate your corporation!” and “I’m going to extend my boycott to all Hasbro toys, etc.” And a campaign has been started on The Point, calling for Hasbro to work with Scrabulous instead of shutting it down (though there only 6 members as of this post).

This has led to a great deal of negative PR, especially in the blogosphere. At a quick glance, I see a “RIP Scrabulous“, a “No, I Do Not Want to Play Scrabble“, and a “F U, Hasbro. F U.

On the other side of the equation are people defending Hasbro’s actions. Or at least raising the issue of copyright infringement as a business benefit: is it “worthwhile to go after pirates, thieves, and copyright-infringers, or… simply let them be and consider it free advertising”, writes Sarah Perez of ReadWriteWeb.

And… I don’t see that many other bloggers supporting Hasbro in my Technorati search. Oh well.

Let’s Make a Deal

All of this drama makes you wonder why Hasbro didn’t just offer to buy Scrabulous, right? Well, apparently they did. While Hasbro and Electronic Arts (ERTS) collaborated to build the new SCRABBLE® app, RealNetworks (RNWK)—another company given the rights to create online Hasbro games—has been working with Scrabulous to “bring the official Scrabble game to Facebook users”, writes Heather Timmons of the NY Times. (Funny, I thought that’s what Hasbro and EA just did.) Furthermore, according to Peter Kafka of Silicon Valley Insider, an offer has been put out to & rejected by the Scrabulific Duo:

The hold up? Money. A source familiar with the negotiations say Rajat and Jayant Agarwalla want too much.

What’s the gap? The brothers say they’re generating $25,000 a month, or $300,000 a year in revenue. A 10x-20x multiple on that would make Scrabulous worth $3-$6 million, but for argument’s sake let’s say they’ll have a hockey stick growth curve, and that their game project could be worth more than $10 million.

Sound fair? Maybe. But our source says the brothers want a “multiple of several times that” $10 million, and the four corporations they’re negotiating with think that’s ridiculous.

If that’s true, then that’s perhaps a bit optimistically presumptuous of the Brothers Agarwalla. $10M is a tidy sum for what is technically a copyright infringement.

Feeding Your Scrabble-Lust

In the meantime, to satisfy your Scrabble fix, you’ll need to add the new SCRABBLE® Facebook app (or the SCRABBLE beta Facebook app; I’m not quite sure which one is the official official one). Unfortunately—oops—the app isn’t working. Instead, you’re slapped with a big fat “We’ll be back up shortly. We’re working on some tech problems and Scrabble will be ready to play as soon as possible!” message. This isn’t their fault though. Alex Pham of the Los Angeles Times reports that this is the result of a hacker attack. (Perhaps from some die-hard Scrabulous fans?)

A No-Win Scenario

All of this amounts to a major catch-22 for Hasbro. Fighting against Scrabulous means loads of negative PR and possible damage to their business. Aligning with Scrabulous means setting a potentially damaging precedent to their business. (Yossarian lives!)

The Discussion Boards of both SCRABBLE apps are full of rants and more rants. And just how many pro-Scrabulous Facebook groups are there? Over 500, with Save Scrabulous clocking in at over 47 thousand members so far (including me). Wow.

The Scrabble board game may have enjoyed a surge in popularity due to Scrabulous, though it’s impossible to confirm this since Hasbro isn’t releasing their sales figures. I wonder if those sales will drop with this negative fallout.

However, I totally understand Hasbro’s actions against Scrabulous. If they supported Scrabulous, they may unleash a disastrous tidal wave. Say Hasbro purchased Scrabulous for $10M, this web business formula could have emerged:

  1. Build an online version of a popular offline game
  2. Gain spectacular popularity
  3. ?
  4. Sell out for millions
  5. Profit

And if you didn’t gain spectacular popularity, the offline game’s parent company would probably just ignore you, like Hasbro has of dozens of Scrabble knock-offs already on the web. Lots of upside for very little downside! Dollars galore!

Either way, Hasbro is sure in a pickle. In that context, I can see why they’d opt to shut down Scrabulous. Months from now, as the public backlash dies down, Facebook users may begin adding the new SCRABBLE apps to quench their Scrabble thirst, and perhaps forget about this whole ordeal. It’s possible. Take jetBlue, for example. Back in February 2007, a severe ice storm took down over a thousand of their flights, leading to a major PR black-eye. Since then, they’ve rebounded from that episode. And if that’s not a great example, take Martha Stewart and the ImClone scandal in 2004. Despite being jailed, she’s back and arguably as strong as ever.

Hasbro could have handled the situation a little smoother though. But I doubt they had a web-savvy/social-media-savvy team of PR specialists on board (and if they did, WTF?). I would have recommended that they reach out to the community in some way. Maybe to solicit suggestions, maybe to implore an understanding. Even if people argued against them, just having a genuine public voice can sometimes earn a lot of empathy. At the very least, it could have softened the blow. This could have also come from Electronic Arts and RealNetworks, the makers of the online SCRABBLE apps.

Personally, I’m bummed as hell that Scrabulous is gone. I had quite a few games going there. I wish a compromise could have been reached, though I wouldn’t have the foggiest how that would have looked.

R.I.P., Scrabulous.

CrunchBase API for Competitive Intelligence

Who doesn’t love free stuff? I sure do. And when they can be used to make your business offerings even better, I call that Awesome with a capital A.

I was just reading Dharmesh Shah’s Embarassingly Gushing Praise for TechCrunch And The New CrunchBase API on OnStartups.com and it got me thinking.

What Shah is so excited about is CrunchBase’s new & free API. CrunchBase is a “free directory of technology companies, people, and investors that anyone can edit”, much like a wiki. It’s not technically a wiki yet (I believe that’s in the plans though), but pulls in a ton of data (from sources like LinkedIn and Google Maps) in addition to offering manual input from editors and the community. In short, it’s a fairly robust database of business information for the high-tech & internet industries.

To put it another way, it’s a valuable resource for competitive intelligence. Which means if one of these online competitive analysis services were to jump on the API and start including this data, they’d have quite an attractive offering. Or aat the very least, they’ll make things easier for business researchers.

Plus, CrunchBase’s API is free. So why the hell not?

Marketing with Gas Saving Tips

Fricken hell. I just paid over $50 to fill up my gas tank. Way over $50. What I wouldn’t give for a hybrid right now (and a hybrid & electric vehicle refueling station!).

With that said, everyone and their Mommas have been trying to cut their gas bills. The smart folks at ModBargains.com saw an opportunity in this and recently sent out an email newsletter full of gas saving tips, along with a gentle reminder to check out their products too.

ModBargains.com is an ecommerce shop that specializes in aftermarket car parts and accessories. The CEO, Mike Brown, started this site in 2005 with a buddy to sell parts for modifying BMWs. They started this while still in attending undergraduate classes at Chapman University. A year later, at the young age of 21, Brown was named the Global Student Entrepreneur of 2006 by the Entrepreneurs’ Organization from among 10 finalists from the United States, Canada and Sweden. Smart guy!

And their gas tips are pretty smart too:

At the Gas Pump

  • Buy gas at the coolest times of the day usually early morning or late afternoon when the sun is not up. At these times, the gas is the most dense, meaning you pump more gas in early mornings or late afternoons than at noon when the sun is at its highest point and density of gas is less. The gas pump measures volume of gasoline pumped through, not density.
  • Avoid topping off the gas tank, overfilling causes the gasoline to slosh around inside and leak out of the gas tank

General Driving Habits

  • Traveling at fast speeds in low gears can consume up to 45% more fuel than is needed.
  • At highway speeds, use your a/c, and on city streets roll your windows down.
  • When possible use Cruise Control. On highways constant speed, in most cases, saves gas.
  • Drive at a steady speed. Constantly slowing down and speeding up consumes gas.
  • Avoid tailgating. Not only is tailgating unsafe but the driver in front of you is unpredictable and can slow down at any second.
  • When driving up to a hill, if you must accelerate, do it before you reach the hill, not on it.
  • Try to avoid driving on rough roads when possible. Dirt and gravel roads use up to 30% of gas mileage.
  • Stoplights are timed for motorists advantage. Staying at the speed limit increases the chance of having green lights all the way.
  • Remove excess weight from trunk or inside car – spare tires if you have roadside assistance, backseats, and unnecessary heavy parts. The more weight in your car the less gas mileage you get.
  • When traveling, use as much trunk space and cab space as possible to avoid using a roof rack that creates drag on the highways.
  • Carpool. All riders help you buy. Carpooling reduces the amount of cars in traffic.
  • During cold weather check car for ice frozen to the frame of your car. 100lbs can be quickly accumulated.

Idling

  • Avoid warming your car up for prolonged periods of time 30-40 seconds is enough time.
  • Idling your car for one minute consumes the same amount of gas when starting. Don’t stay in a drivethru go inside.
  • Avoid “revving” this wastes fuel needlessly and washes oil down from the inside cylinder walls resulting in loss of oil pressure.
  • Accelerate slowly from a complete stop.

Recommended Check-Ups

  • Get your car checked regularly to guarantee the best fuel economy for your vehicle. Keeping air filters clean maintains good fuel economy.
  • Use recommended grade of motor oil.
  • Inspect chassis and suspension parts for occasional misalignment. Bent wheels, axels, bad shocks, broken springs, etc. can create engine drag and are unsafe at high speeds.
  • During good weather season remove snow tires, traveling on deep tire tread decreases gas mileage.
  • Keep tires inflated to the maximum recommended limit. Get tires periodically spun, balanced, and checked for out-of-round. (check manufacturer’s specs for max tire pressures).

Air Intake Advantages

  • There is common misconception regarding intakes. Some people believe that it is only for making your car louder. Although this is true, an air intake system does more than that. Not only it make your car sound better, but it will also give you more horsepower and more miles per gallon. Since the engine is breathing easier, it doesn’t have to work as hard to produce its power.

    Therefore you use less fuel. If you wanted to take your performance and your miles per gallon even further, then I would recommend replacing your catalytic converters to Hi-flow catalytic converters and install a larger-diameter exhaust system. Both improve exiting airflow from the engine and increase horsepower along with increasing your miles per gallon. Since you are saving money at the pump, these modifications will soon pay for themselves.

    With 18 mph with your stock intake, we calculate that with an aftermarket intake you should save approximately $500 per year by using an aftermarket intake of good quality. This is based on 30 miles per day of driving at $5/gallon.

Traveling Tips

  • Before driving, plan your route. Determine your destination(s) and find the best way there–this includes the distance needed to travel to the destination, the amount of traffic involved during your commute, and the time of day you travel. Planning your destination ahead of time will help you save a significant amount of gas and time during your day.

    There are GPS devices today that include live traffic information features that will help you during your drive to your destination.

Low Price Gas Locator Websites

  • Gasbuddy.com – GasBuddy.com can help you find cheap gas prices in your city. It is a network of more than 181+ gas price information websites that help you find low gasoline prices. All web sites are operated by GasBuddy and has the most comprehensive listings of gas prices anywhere.
  • Mapquest.com – Mapquest Gas Prices finds the cheapest gas prices in your area. Helping you save money on your next gas purchase.
  • Fueleconomy.gov – Fueleconomy.gov provides you with Gas Prices, Gas Mileage Tips, Articles on Hybrid, Diesel, Alternative Fuel Vehicles, and more!

Great tips, huh? An email newsletter with this much content is sure way to get forwarded to friends and friends of friends. The tip I most appreciated was buying gas at the coolest times of the day. I’ve heard most of the other tips before, but not this one.

A smart email marketing move if I’ve ever seen one, especially with today’s gas prices. Brown & ModBargains.com: everyone and their Mommas thanks you.

The New Google Keyword Tool

Happy happy, joy joy! Google has updated their Keyword Tool. You can now get the exact number of searches on particular keywords.

That may sound pretty benign to you, unless you’re an internet marketer of some sort. In which case, it’s HUGE news. Enormous. In the past, you had to guesstimate the amount of traffic you could receive from each keyword. But without exact numbers, all you’d have were relative measures of effectiveness.

So why is knowing the number of searches on a keyword important?

You’ll know which keywords are important to your customers
Say you sell portable GPS units. If you use Google’s Keyword Tool, you’ll find that the phrases “navigation system” and “portable navigation” are typed into Google much more often than “portable GPS unit”. With this information, you can write product descriptions with those keyword phrases and bring in more traffic to your site.
You’ll be able to estimate customer demand
If you are thinking about a new section to your site, the number of keyword searches can give you an idea of customer demand. This can even apply to non-web businesses. In John Battelle’s book The Search, he calls search engines a “database of our intentions.” Want to find out if there’s existing customer demand for a new product line or service offering? Google’s Keyword Tool can give you an answer to that.
You’ll be able to estimate potential revenue for a new web niche
Affiliate marketers are always on the look out for new and untapped web niches. However, not all niches are created equal. Some generate more traffic than others. With Google’s updated Keyword Tool, exact searches can be determined. This can be plugged into a financial model used to estimate monthly revenue per keyword. With this data, you can know accurately which new niches to tap into.

Up till now, internet marketers have been using the handy keyword service Wordtracker. One of it’s more useful features was offering an estimated number of searches on particular keywords. Google’s update now trumps that, since Google is able to provide the exact number of searches.

This doesn’t mean Wordtracker is out of the game, however. They still offer other useful features, such as estimating the level of competition per keyword and a Keyword Effectiveness Index (KEI), which helps find untapped keyword niches within a general topic.

The internet marketing world is buzzing with this news right now. Ed Dale, internet entrepreneur and marketer extraordinaire, even provides some information on how to determine the exact number of searches from Google’s Keyword Tool.

And as Dale says, this is enormous! ENORMOUS!

Scrabulous vs Scrabble, Round Two

Scrabulous You know what reminds me of that clueless little kid who always gets the joke after everyone else has gotten it, laughed, and moved on to another topic?

Hasbro (HAS) and Electronic Arts (ERTS). (No offense, guys.)

They just announced that they are going to be launching a Scrabble Facebook application later this month. Too bad everyone’s been playing Scrabulous for the last year.

“Millions of Facebook users who have been playing it are unlikely to make the switch,” writes Caroline McCarthy of CNet. “Who says they’ll even notice the presence of the new game?” Too true, too true.

Technically, Electronic Arts is going to be the one actually building this app, since they own the rights to the digital versions of the board game. The rights to the board game seem to be a bit convoluted. While Hasbro owns it here in the US, Mattel owns it elsewhere. Weird.

To be fair, the dynamics of large publically-traded companies make them slower to react to new phenomenon like this. They probably already have a wish list of a thousand things they want to, and need to do. And a Facebook Scrabble game just wasn’t on that list.

That doesn’t change my opinion that they missed a really cool social media marketing opportunity though. They missed it, and a smaller player—Scrabulous—beat them to it.