BizThoughts

This is an oldie but a goodie. SEO specialists know this already. You should too, if your internet business depends on traffic from Google at all.

Back in August 2006, AOL released the search records of 500k users collected over a three month period. The data was removed as quickly as it was published, due to privacy concerns. It is still available on various mirrors on the internet, however (nothing is ever completely erased from the internet).

Then Richard Hearne of Red Cardinal took the data and figured out the average click-through rate of each position on Google's search results page:

SEO specialists and internet marketers can then use this data, cross-reference it with the Google's Keyword Tool, and figure out potentially how much traffic they can receive per keyword if they're able to achieve a high search engine rank.

How reliable is this data? Pretty reliable, since the selection size is so large. There may be some bias (they were all AOL users), but I'm guessing it's fairly accurate. Ed Dale believes it's pretty spot on.

A couple of months later, several researchers from Cornell University did an eye-tracking analysis of Google's search results page. They came up with slightly higher click-through percentages, as Oleg Ishenko of SEO Researcher shows with the following heat map:

The Cornell study is less reliable, however. Their sample set was only 26 undergraduate students who performed 397 Google queries in a usability lab.

In either case, these results show a strong click-through rate for the first result (no duh). The rates taper down until the last result, which enjoys a slight uptick. It should also be noted that this data only shows rates for organic search results and not PPC/sponsored listings.

Cool stuff though. I love free data.

Who doesn't love free stuff? I sure do. And when they can be used to make your business offerings even better, I call that Awesome with a capital A.

I was just reading Dharmesh Shah's Embarassingly Gushing Praise for TechCrunch And The New CrunchBase API on OnStartups.com and it got me thinking.

What Shah is so excited about is CrunchBase's new & free API. CrunchBase is a "free directory of technology companies, people, and investors that anyone can edit", much like a wiki. It's not technically a wiki yet (I believe that's in the plans though), but pulls in a ton of data (from sources like LinkedIn and Google Maps) in addition to offering manual input from editors and the community. In short, it's a fairly robust database of business information for the high-tech & internet industries.

To put it another way, it's a valuable resource for competitive intelligence. Which means if one of these online competitive analysis services were to jump on the API and start including this data, they'd have quite an attractive offering. Or aat the very least, they'll make things easier for business researchers.

Plus, CrunchBase's API is free. So why the hell not?

Fricken hell. I just paid over $50 to fill up my gas tank. Way over $50. What I wouldn't give for a hybrid right now (and a hybrid & electric vehicle refueling station!).

With that said, everyone and their Mommas have been trying to cut their gas bills. The smart folks at ModBargains.com saw an opportunity in this and recently sent out an email newsletter full of gas saving tips, along with a gentle reminder to check out their products too.

ModBargains.com is an ecommerce shop that specializes in aftermarket car parts and accessories. The CEO, Mike Brown, started this site in 2005 with a buddy to sell parts for modifying BMWs. They started this while still in attending undergraduate classes at Chapman University. A year later, at the young age of 21, Brown was named the Global Student Entrepreneur of 2006 by the Entrepreneurs' Organization from among 10 finalists from the United States, Canada and Sweden. Smart guy!

And their gas tips are pretty smart too:

At the Gas Pump

• Buy gas at the coolest times of the day usually early morning or late afternoon when the sun is not up. At these times, the gas is the most dense, meaning you pump more gas in early mornings or late afternoons than at noon when the sun is at its highest point and density of gas is less. The gas pump measures volume of gasoline pumped through, not density.
• Avoid topping off the gas tank, overfilling causes the gasoline to slosh around inside and leak out of the gas tank

General Driving Habits

• Traveling at fast speeds in low gears can consume up to 45% more fuel than is needed.
• At highway speeds, use your a/c, and on city streets roll your windows down.
• When possible use Cruise Control. On highways constant speed, in most cases, saves gas.
• Drive at a steady speed. Constantly slowing down and speeding up consumes gas.
• Avoid tailgating. Not only is tailgating unsafe but the driver in front of you is unpredictable and can slow down at any second.
• When driving up to a hill, if you must accelerate, do it before you reach the hill, not on it.
• Try to avoid driving on rough roads when possible. Dirt and gravel roads use up to 30% of gas mileage.
• Stoplights are timed for motorists advantage. Staying at the speed limit increases the chance of having green lights all the way.
• Remove excess weight from trunk or inside car - spare tires if you have roadside assistance, backseats, and unnecessary heavy parts. The more weight in your car the less gas mileage you get.
• When traveling, use as much trunk space and cab space as possible to avoid using a roof rack that creates drag on the highways.
• Carpool. All riders help you buy. Carpooling reduces the amount of cars in traffic.
• During cold weather check car for ice frozen to the frame of your car. 100lbs can be quickly accumulated.

Idling

• Avoid warming your car up for prolonged periods of time 30-40 seconds is enough time.
• Idling your car for one minute consumes the same amount of gas when starting. Don't stay in a drivethru go inside.
• Avoid "revving" this wastes fuel needlessly and washes oil down from the inside cylinder walls resulting in loss of oil pressure.
• Accelerate slowly from a complete stop.

Recommended Check-Ups

• Get your car checked regularly to guarantee the best fuel economy for your vehicle. Keeping air filters clean maintains good fuel economy.
• Use recommended grade of motor oil.
• Inspect chassis and suspension parts for occasional misalignment. Bent wheels, axels, bad shocks, broken springs, etc. can create engine drag and are unsafe at high speeds.
• During good weather season remove snow tires, traveling on deep tire tread decreases gas mileage.
• Keep tires inflated to the maximum recommended limit. Get tires periodically spun, balanced, and checked for out-of-round. (check manufacturer's specs for max tire pressures).

Air Intake Advantages

• There is common misconception regarding intakes. Some people believe that it is only for making your car louder. Although this is true, an air intake system does more than that. Not only it make your car sound better, but it will also give you more horsepower and more miles per gallon. Since the engine is breathing easier, it doesn't have to work as hard to produce its power.

  Therefore you use less fuel. If you wanted to take your performance and your miles per gallon even further, then I would recommend replacing your catalytic converters to Hi-flow catalytic converters and install a larger-diameter exhaust system. Both improve exiting airflow from the engine and increase horsepower along with increasing your miles per gallon. Since you are saving money at the pump, these modifications will soon pay for themselves.

  With 18 mph with your stock intake, we calculate that with an aftermarket intake you should save approximately $500 per year by using an aftermarket intake of good quality. This is based on 30 miles per day of driving at $5/gallon.

Traveling Tips

• Before driving, plan your route. Determine your destination(s) and find the best way there–this includes the distance needed to travel to the destination, the amount of traffic involved during your commute, and the time of day you travel. Planning your destination ahead of time will help you save a significant amount of gas and time during your day.

  There are GPS devices today that include live traffic information features that will help you during your drive to your destination.

Low Price Gas Locator Websites

• Gasbuddy.com - GasBuddy.com can help you find cheap gas prices in your city. It is a network of more than 181+ gas price information websites that help you find low gasoline prices. All web sites are operated by GasBuddy and has the most comprehensive listings of gas prices anywhere.
• Mapquest.com - Mapquest Gas Prices finds the cheapest gas prices in your area. Helping you save money on your next gas purchase.
• Fueleconomy.gov - Fueleconomy.gov provides you with Gas Prices, Gas Mileage Tips, Articles on Hybrid, Diesel, Alternative Fuel Vehicles, and more!

Great tips, huh? An email newsletter with this much content is sure way to get forwarded to friends and friends of friends. The tip I most appreciated was buying gas at the coolest times of the day. I've heard most of the other tips before, but not this one.

A smart email marketing move if I've ever seen one, especially with today's gas prices. Brown & ModBargains.com: everyone and their Mommas thanks you.

Happy happy, joy joy! Google has updated their Keyword Tool. You can now get the exact number of searches on particular keywords.

That may sound pretty benign to you, unless you're an internet marketer of some sort. In which case, it's HUGE news. Enormous. In the past, you had to guesstimate the amount of traffic you could receive from each keyword. But without exact numbers, all you'd have were relative measures of effectiveness.

So why is knowing the number of searches on a keyword important?

You'll know which keywords are important to your customers

Say you sell portable GPS units. If you use Google's Keyword Tool, you'll find that the phrases "navigation system" and "portable navigation" are typed into Google much more often than "portable GPS unit". With this information, you can write product descriptions with those keyword phrases and bring in more traffic to your site.

You'll be able to estimate customer demand

If you are thinking about a new section to your site, the number of keyword searches can give you an idea of customer demand. This can even apply to non-web businesses. In John Battelle's book The Search, he calls search engines a "database of our intentions." Want to find out if there's existing customer demand for a new product line or service offering? Google's Keyword Tool can give you an answer to that.

You'll be able to estimate potential revenue for a new web niche

Affiliate marketers are always on the look out for new and untapped web niches. However, not all niches are created equal. Some generate more traffic than others. With Google's updated Keyword Tool, exact searches can be determined. This can be plugged into a financial model used to estimate monthly revenue per keyword. With this data, you can know accurately which new niches to tap into.

Up till now, internet marketers have been using the handy keyword service Wordtracker. One of it's more useful features was offering an estimated number of searches on particular keywords. Google's update now trumps that, since Google is able to provide the exact number of searches.

This doesn't mean Wordtracker is out of the game, however. They still offer other useful features, such as estimating the level of competition per keyword and a Keyword Effectiveness Index (KEI), which helps find untapped keyword niches within a general topic.

The internet marketing world is buzzing with this news right now. Ed Dale, internet entrepreneur and marketer extraordinaire, even provides some information on how to determine the exact number of searches from Google's Keyword Tool.

And as Dale says, this is enormous! ENORMOUS!

Have a code review coming up? Need to give your peers a thorough review of their code, but are dreading the drudgery of the process? Don't find the peer review process particularly effective?

There are volumes and volumes written about code review processes, including debates with paired programming and other Agile practices.

Here's a simple yet powerful alternative. It comes from a former colleague and uber developer: Kent Brewster. As a published author, he's used the Clarion Method as a process for "critiquing short stories submitted over the course of an intensive six-week 'boot camp' for new writers."

During a team meeting one day, as we hunkered down for a traditional code review, he suggested this alternative. In a nutshell:

Roles

• Moderator
• Code Reviewee
• Code Reviewers (two or more)

Process

1. Code Reviewee brings printed copies of the code to be reviewed (preferably with a maximum of 10 pages or so). Each participant gets a copy. Each line of code should be numbered.

2. Code Reviewee provides a high-level summary of the code. This can include the code's purpose, known bugs, and a brief rationale behind its structure.

3. Each Code Reviewer reads the code for 5-10 minutes in silence. They can make notes on the copies as necessary. The Moderator keeps track of the time.

4. Each Code Reviewer takes a 3 minute turn delivering their review. No more than 3 minutes should be spent, as each turn is meant to be quick. If someone else mentions an issue you wanted to raise, just say "ditto on xxx" instead of repeating it.

5. While the Code Reviewers speak, the Code Reviewee must remain silent. No rebuttals, no explanations, no excuses. Just shut up and sit there. There will be a chance to speak up later.

6. After the reviews, the Code Reviewee now has a chance to speak. This opportunity should be used to ask questions and clarify what issues the Reviewers saw. Both sides can converse and debate freely now.

Exceptions

• If the code requires execution to be properly reviewed, each participant can bring a laptop along. The Code Reviewee should provide a location where the code can be seen an executed.
• If the code is very lengthy, select just one section to be reviewed. Other sections can be reviewed at future sessions.
• If a Code Reviewer offers incorrect advice, raise it at the end so the Reviewer can learn from this session as well.

Kent has a more detailed explanation of this process on his site.

If done well, this process allows everyone to have a chance to voice their opinions about the code, regardless of their skill level. Code Reviewees and Reviewers alike can learn a lot from these sessions. I've even found that developers from across multiple teams can join in without requiring a lot of background information.

Even more telling is that many developers really look forward to their code reviews. This process forms such a supportive, non-threatening, and educational environment that developers know they'll always learn something new from a code review. That, to me, is a mark of a truly effective process.

Guess what's been on my mind? Yup, the Amazon Kindle. How'd you guess?

While it's enlightening to praise and debate, I know it has quite a few improvements to make before it rocks the market. Sure, it has more promise than it's competitors, but if it doesn't maintain its lead, than I'll be a sad panda.

Here's my wish list of what Amazon needs to do to improve the Kindle for v2 and beyond:

• Improve it's ergonomics (hardware) and usability (software). This is probably its most well-known criticism. Hopefully they'll follow the principles of KISS.

• Continue getting more content. That means getting more publishers to release their books in e-book format. Probably not an easy task, but if anyone has the clout to do it, it's Amazon.

• Allow more formats to be readable. They don't necessarily have to be writable for now, just readable. Like PDF, PPT, and XLS file formats. (To their credit, they already support TXT, HTML, and DOC.)

• Allow readers a way to somehow "transfer" their existing books into the Kindle. I'm not sure how this could be done, as it leaves many openings for abuse. But I'd love to digitize my current library into the Kindle without having to buy all of those books again. Ugh.

• Add a touch screen interface. Touch screen UIs are nice and generally easy-to-use (if done right). They could add significantly to the usability of the Kindle—again, if done right.

• Offer a color screen. At least, as an option for some people. I'm sure this is on their internal wish list already.

• Offer a backlit screen. This could also be an option, as some people may feel its current state is better on the eyes.

• Offer multiple versions. They could differ in size, storage space, and maybe even color and outer material (imagine a leather-bound Kindle! Hmm!). If/when the Kindle catches on with younger consumers, the market for personalization accessories could be sizable too.

• Strengthen its body. Books have to survive quite a rough rumble and tumble. It would be cool if the Kindle could survive that kind of physical stress too. Perhaps this could merely be another version.

Go go Kindle go!

I'm having a fun ole' debate over the Amazon (AMZN) Kindle right now. It's taking place in the comments of a previous post between myself and Nicholas Zakas, a published author, seasoned programmer, and all-around intelligent guy.

I like debates. They give me a chance to hone my opinions and positions on various topics. I'll do my best to defend my position, but more often than not, I'll learn a new viewpoint that adds to my knowledge of that topic.

My post was about how great the Amazon Kindle was going to be. I likened the Kindle to Apple's (AAPL) iPod. Nicholas commented that:

The iPod was successful largely because people wanted to replace their large portable CD players with something that could play more…it wasn't techies that make the iPod the sensation that it was, it was the non-techies.

This implies it was the iPod's ease-of-use that made it such a commercial success. While I totally agree, I think it was more than just the iPod's simple & friendly form factor that made it great. It was also:

1. iPod's branding and Apple's great overall brand
2. The "complete package" that iTunes integration offers to the iPod

He argued that while this is true for iPods, it's different for books:

There's something about the tactile relationship between readers and their material that makes it hard to give up. I remember when people predicted that newspapers would go out of circulation when people could get their news online…

True, but the same was once said about records when first CDs came out. There was a time when people predicted the TV would replace the radio. And later, that interactive TV would replace regular TV. I've never believed that newspapers would go out of circulation, but I do believe their role will change—and has already changed. It's no longer the single source of up-to-date news. People primarily go to the TV for that now. (Those that go to the web for up-to-date news are still in the minority, though it's growing rapidly.)

He also made a comment about the Amazon Kindle falsely gaining a first-mover advantage, though the Kindle isn't the first e-book reader on the market; there are quite a few already. While he's probably just not as familiar with the e-book market, we both agree that first-mover advantage isn't a panacea for success.

To that, he followed up with a simple mathematical point:

Considering you can get great books for under $10 nearly anywhere, what would you do? Buy a $400 machine to output text, or buy 40 books? I love tech as much as the next computer geek, but even I would go for the latter.

Good point. If you're someone who will only buy forty $10 books, you'll hardly see any cost-savings benefit in the Amazon Kindle. But if you're someone like me, who's been known to spend upwards of $800 on books a year, the Amazon Kindle may be worth it.

But then this goes into the question of target demographics, which Nicholas also pointed out:

Tell me who [the target consumers] are for Kindle? People who read books like books, not just the text. The divergence between book readers and technology couldn't possibly be greater. People often read books to escape computers and technology.

I can't disagree with that. As a bookworm myself, I also love the tactile feel of a book. However, I used to love the tactile feel of a CD booklet too. Every time I'd listen to a CD, I'd read the booklet for the lyrics or linear notes. Or maybe just stare at the album cover art. I loved doing that. When MP3s first hit the market, I didn't see the appeal because they felt so ethereal and amorphous. There wasn't anything I could hold in my hands.

Then I hit a tipping point and realized that the portability and physical space savings of MP3s offset the benefits of having CD booklets for me. The same went for digital movies and DVDs. Now, I love digitizing all of my media.

What may tip the balance of books to e-books are the younger generations of consumers. They're already growing up with the Internet, mobile phones, and MMORPGs (with their virtual goods) as everyday items in their lives. It's foreign for them to imagine a world without technology like that. They also don't place as much value on CD booklets, DVD boxes, or books in the same way the older generations do—younger generations seem all-to-eager to accept digital media.

Just like newspapers, there will always be a role for books. When you're chilling in a log cabin or on a beach somewhere, you'll probably want a good solid book in your hands. But if you're on a train commuting to work, it may be more desirable to hold a device that will allow you to read any book, newspaper, or blog you want.

Potential Initial Niche Targets

One last thought. If Amazon were to approach the e-book market with Geoffrey Moore's advice in mind (as he writes in Crossing the Chasm), they could target graduate students as an initial niche. With graduate textbooks costing hundreds of dollars, they may find it more cost-effective and easier to lug around a Kindle rather than seven 5lb textbooks. The price point of the Kindle would have to drop from its current $359.00, however. But that is inevitable as they streamline their production costs.

Undergraduate students could be a viable initial niche as well, though more research would need to be done since many undergraduates just purchase used textbooks to save money. If a cheaper Kindle could tap into this market, the purchasers may actually be the students' parents.

Another initial niche could be any profession that requires access to large volumes of books at any given time, such as lawyers. Imagine the mountains of books a lawyer has to go through. Now imagine being able to search through all of that easily through a single handheld device. Not bad, huh?

This is easier said than done, of course. There are lots of tricky book publisher contracts to negotiate. Without the necessary content, these niches are impossible to reach. But still, it's not hard to imagine these users wanting a device like the Amazon Kindle, yea?

Remember your first iPod? Remember the first song you purchased from Apple's (AAPL) iTunes Store? Remember the 100th song?

I got a chance to check out Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle this past weekend. It was almost like seeing an iPod for the first time. I couldn't stop drooling and fawning over all the buttons and controls.

Much has been written about the Kindle already. Some extol its features, like being able to carry lots of books cheaply, having good battery life, and having audiobook integration. Others slam it for it's poor design and lack of social network (Um, really? You want a social network on an e-book reader? If anything, that's a P3 feature and shouldn't be part of a v1 product). It's interesting to note that many of the Kindle's original critics have changed their minds after using it for a while.

Rob Tillotson of The Gadgeteer has a deep & thorough review, Daniel Turner of Technology Review offers a good overview of its technical guts, and Mike Elgan of Macworld lists some great tips & tricks of the Kindle. These include how you can surf the web using its basic web browser (called, appropriately, "Basic Web"), download free e-books, get answers from a free human-powered search engine called Kindle NowNow, make the battery last even longer, read RSS feeds for free, etc.

My reaction? I just went out and purchased some AMZN stock. It's currently floating around the same price it had when the Kindle debuted on Nov. 19, 2007. It closed at 79.18 that day; today, it's been bouncing between 77.43 and 78.85, down from a high of 84.39 last Monday. But I don't care about that. I'm long AMZN. I'm betting that the Kindle will be to Amazon what the iPod was to Apple—and we all know how good the iPod was to Apple!

Here's why I'm long on Amazon:

UPDATED 5/24/2008: I added #9 to this list.

1. I am exactly the kind of early adopter customer Amazon wants. Although I didn't rush out to buy a Kindle (and am not going to anytime soon), as soon as the second or third version is released, I will. They're working on their second version right now, a source in Amazon tells me (and it sounds pretty good!), so it shouldn't be long before v3 is ready and relatively bug-free. And when I purchase a Kindle, I'm going buy lots of e-books. I'm a voracious reader and am always buying new books. Since Amazon's strategy is to profit from e-book sales and not Kindle sales (the Kindle is a loss leader), attracting book-hungry customers like me is going to be so money.

2. I travel often and always carry a book or three with me. That often adds extra weight that, well, just sucks. Since I usually try to travel light, carrying one Kindle versus three books sounds totally awesome. I can see other travelers wanting the same benefits. The business traveler niche could have great potential for Amazon, especially if business users are able to load their business documents onto the Kindle and peruse them during their flights.

3. I'm a bit of a digital pack-rat. Or just a big a geek, I dunno. I once had over 600 CDs. Then, to live more efficiently and have less material belongings, I burned them all into MP3s. I did the same with my DVDs. All that extra shelf space allowed my book collection to grow like crazy. Now imagine if I could digitize all of my books. How cool would that be. All of the media I'd own would be digital, portable, and easily searchable (told you I'm a big geek). That would be cool.

4. This is only a v1 product and already it's gotten a huge positive reaction. Most v1 products suck. The first generation of iPods sucked. But with Apple's branding & slick design and iTunes' ease of use & practical prices, it took over the market and surged as each new version was released. Kindle 1.0 was cool, 2.0 and higher can only get better.

5. A medical student I know took a look at the Kindle and said that if all of his medical textbooks were offered on the Kindle, he'd buy it in a heartbeat. First of all, medical textbooks are huge. HUGE. And medical students have to carry two to four of these heavy things at once. Second, medical textbooks are expensive, especially for starving students. With e-books being cheaper than regular books, a student could easily make up the cost of the Kindle over the course of his/her education. This could be a huge market for them, and the smart folks at Amazon know this.

6. Amazon has to maintain physical warehouses to store all the books they sell. E-books don't require expensive warehouses; they just require a database on a server farm somewhere, which is infinitely cheaper. This means Amazon could potentially sell more products (e-books) while not incurring any additional costs. I like them mathematics.

7. If Amazon can execute its Kindle & e-book strategy well, it certainly could go the way Apple's iPod & iTunes strategy went. According to a Nov. 19, 2007 article from Aaron Pressman of Business Week, "Apple shares (AAPL) stood at $9.51 (adjusted for a split) the day before the launch. I don't need to tell you where they are today. Ok, I will: $166." Not a bad return, I'd say.

8. I'm not the only one who expects great things from Kindle. Citigroup Analyst Mark Mahaney "expects Amazon to generate between $400 million and $750 million in revenue from the Kindle by 2010, or 1% - 3% of Amazon's total revenue," writes Michael Arrington of TechCrunch. "If Amazon executes right with its Kindle product and marketing strategy, the iPod analogy for the Kindle won't be too far stretched," Mahaney is quoted as saying. Cool!

9. Part of iPod's success came from the ease of use of getting more MP3s. Just as the iTunes Store made it very easy to download MP3s, the Kindle Store makes it very easy to download e-books for the Kindle. And even better, the Kindle Store is easier than iTunes because you can directly access it via the Kindle (no need for a computer at all).

I can't wait for the day I can look back and remember my first Kindle, my first e-book, and my 100th e-book. And also, a great big ROI on AMZN!