BizThoughts

The first rule of marketing: you do not talk about marketing… Oh wait, wrong club.

The first rule of marketing: you are not your customer.

It sounds obvious when you hear it. But violating it is as easy as jaywalking down a Manhattan street. You may do it sometimes without even thinking about it.

This past week, I've heard two colleagues argue endlessly about one of their product offerings - a series of content articles. They disagreed with the topics in a third colleague's articles. "Low brow", "poorly targeted", and "aimed at the wrong people" were criticisms they lobbied.

That's fine and all. But the third colleague's articles were the most popular offering they had. Their customers clearly loved these topics.

"These are the wrong customers," continued the first two. "The ones we want don't want content like this."

Cursory market research into the current customers indicated that… well… these are the customers they're targeting. They fall squarely within their target demographic.

"Well, we don't want those particular customers. They are the wrong people for us!"

Huh. Since when did a business not want it's current customers? It's hard enough to get customers, but once you have some, who in their right mind wouldn't want them anymore?

"Well, okay, then our customers just don't know what they want. They don't want these topics. They don't need these articles."

Ah. Since when do marketers know what their customers want better than the customers do? Remember the first rule of marketing: you are not your customer. You don't know exactly what they want.

How is such an impasse solved? By market research, talking to your customers, and getting to know them well. Marketing shouldn't be driven by your own opinions. It should be driven by objective research.

Use surveys, interviews, comment forms, something - anything - to get actual customer feedback. You may be surprised by what you hear. And you may learn something about your true customers too.

I didn't win. Which is no big surprise. But I didn't even know I didn't win until I happened to check my Spam folder and see a bunch of emails from the CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge.

Oops. Imagine if I had actually won. I might have missed the email!

Let's see how poorly I did. I'm almost embarrassed to publish these. Gulp.

Portfolio 1: Entertainment

Portfolio 2: Energy

Portfolio 3: Discount Shopping

Portfolio 4: Technology

Portfolio 5: First Week's Top Market Movers

Oh my. My my my. That's a lot of red. That's just… abysmal. I didn't do so badly last year, but sure as hell stunk like a rotting goose egg locked in a stuffy car during the summer this year, didn't I? This is why I'm in Silicon Valley and not Wall Street.

Speaking of marketing for men, I just finished the book Branded Male by Mark Tungate. This was another free book sent to me for review. I enjoyed this book way more than the last one too.

The Pros

Mark Tungate is a British journalist and author based in Paris. His style is entertaining and witty, making this book a pleasure to read. I breezed through it quickly.

The chapters are organized to reflect a day in the life of a typical modern male in the UK, though some of this behaviors can be seen in US men as well. They follow him as he:

• Grooms himself upon waking (cleaning, shaving, etc)
• Selects his clothes for the day
• Thinks about dieting
• Furnishes his home
• Drives his car
• Travels for work
• Reads magazines & newspapers
• Uses electronics
• Stays in a hotel
• Watches TV
• Works out at the gym
• Drinks alcohol
• Eats dinner
• And, of course, has sex

As you can see, this covers just about every common activity a typical modern man has to do, short of personal hobbies & interests.

After each chapter frames the day in the life vignette, Tungate goes into the market research behind each behavior and quotes from numerous sources. Loads of anecdotal evidence is provided with each. Then a short & succinct summary, called a Branding Toolkit, is provided that nicely closes each chapter.

If you're a marketer for any kind of product or service aimed at men, you'll find this book interesting and chock full of useful tidbits, like juicy raisins in bland oat bran. For me, who hasn't had to do marketing for men before, I learned a lot from Branded Male. I especially liked the brief history lesson of men's fashion and how the modern-day suit came to be—apparently a "dandy" by the name of George "Beau" Brummell set the template for what is now the business suit.

The Cons

I found the numerous quoted sources a bit tiresome after a while. There are sections in the book where every other chapter is a quote from another source. While I appreciate the exhaustive research he's done, the quotes became distracting after a while.

This isn't a complaint at all, but US readers will notice that Tungate uses lots of UK spellings and phrases throughout the book. Lots of "colour" instead of "color", "looking smart" instead of "looking handsome" (or maybe, "looking sharp"), and "11.30" o'clock time notation instead of "11:30" o'clock time notation. Not a surprise at all, since he's a British journalist.

I really didn't have any complaints about this book. Fun read, useful information, good organization… I think I may actually check out some of Tungate's other books too, if they're as good as this one.

I like to win. Blame it on my competitive nature, the euphoria of winning, or the adrenalin of success. In any case, I like to win.

So when Bill Barker wrote "How to Win CNBC's Million-Dollar Portfolio Challenge", my ears perked like a cat hearing a can opener. (Meeeow!) Here's what Barker suggests:

1. Use all five portfolios.
2. Maintain a super-concentrated portfolio.
3. Size matters, so go small.
4. Focus on earnings announcements.
5. Look at companies trading at or near 52-week lows.
6. Celebrate low-priced stocks.
7. Look for shorts; they are great candidates for quick upward moves.
8. Invest in possible mergers, as they could offer a quick pop.
9. Biotech stocks frequently populate the top performers of the day.
10. Simply have fun.

Good advice there. I've already used some of it. He also suggests these stocks, which more or less fit the criteria he's outlined:

• Blockbuster (BBI)
• Circuit City (CC)
• FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
• TiVo (TIVO)

Let's see how on-the-money his advice will be. And good luck everyone!

I scratched my chin and occasionally picked my nose for a long time while coming up with these. For this year's CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge, I decided to cluster my stock selections by sector.

Since we can create five portfolios with a minimum of four stocks each, I did just that: five portfolios with four stocks each. Going with just four stocks maximizes my chances; any more than that, and I'd be diversifying my portfolios too much. The name of the game here isn't Who's the Best Real-World Market Investor, it's Who's the Best Short-Term (Two-Month) CNBC-Fabricated-World Market Investor.

My initial picks:

Portfolio 1: Entertainment

Let's see how Marvel does with this summer's upcoming blockbuster movies. BTW, Iron Man rocked!

• Marvel Entertainment (MVL)
• DreamWorks Animation (DWA)
• Electronic Arts (ERTS)
• Activision (ATVI)

Portfolio 2: Energy

Energy's a volatile sector and oil & gas prices are still rising. Perfect combo for wild stock spikes. Hopefully mostly up in the next two months.

• Venoco (VQ)
• Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP)
• Berry Petroleum (BRY)
• BP (BP)

Portfolio 3: Discount Shopping

Some people are already tightening their belts. That means more shopping at discount stores. Everyone loves cheap stuff!

• 99 Cent Only Stores (NDN)
• Dollar Tree (DLTR)
• Family Dollar Stores (FDO)
• Ross Stores (ROST)

Portfolio 4: Technology

I have the least confidence in this portfolio; I don't know how strong technology will be growing in the next two months. But its volatility could make for some huge price swings.

• Clearwire (CLWR)
• GigaMedia (GIGM)
• 3Com Corporation (COMS)
• Yahoo! (YHOO)

Portfolio 5: First Week's Top Market Movers

This one simply takes the first week's top market movers. It's a random grouping, a what-the-hell portfolio, because: what the hell.

• Venoco (VQ)
• Acme Packet (APKT)
• Collective Brands (PSS)
• ICO Global Communications (ICOG)

What are your picks?

It's that time of year again. Time to take part in CNBC's 2008 Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge!

I entered this contest last year with a few average picks, and when it was discovered that some participants were gaming the system, the whole thing started becoming kinda lame. My final results were okay too: a 5.2% increase. Not bad.

This year, CNBC has changed up the rules because of last year's cheating. (Interesting anecdote: after disqualifying all the cheaters, last year's winner, Mary Sue Williams, is apparently still a waitress who is now getting lousy tips - cuz she's rich, her customers tell her.)

The rules now include:

• Requiring at least four stocks in your portfolio
• Allowing up to five portfolios within your account
• Allowing currency trading in addition to stock trading

Officially, this contest began yesterday. Their website has been marred with outages and problems, however, so I've had a hard time getting in and setting up my portfolio. I wonder if this year's contest is going to be kinda lame too. I hope not, though I kind of think it will, especially with the rough start it's been having. Bummer.

I've been drooling all weekend. Drooling over videos of BMW's new M3 and it's convertible counterpart. Can I just say: HOT!

The M3 video is a clip from the British show Fifth Gear. That, and the original BBC car show Top Gear, cover all kinds of cool cars. Unfortunately, the shows are only available in the UK, unless you have a satellite TV that's able to pick up the BBC.

Both shows are popular among car enthusiasts. YouTube may have made them even more popular in this country by introducing them to US audiences (correct me if I'm wrong about that). The shows generally feature cars from BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi, Jaguar, Porsche, Aston Martin, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Maserati, Bentley, as well as a few from Honda, Volkswagen, Dodge, Ford, and General Motors. There's been some criticism that the shows don't feature enough "affordable" cars, however.

After talking to a friend about these shows, my mind started wandering. And wondering. Since these shows are so cool, why aren't they in the US? Or perhaps: what if there were a US version that included American hot rods, pick-up trucks, and SUVs, since those are generally more popular in the US? What if there was a segment for off-roading, where pick-up trucks and SUVs could battle it out on rocky terrain and hills?

As with all seemingly good ideas, I was not the first to think this. According to Top Gear's Wikipedia entry:

In April 2007, the BBC reported on a Sun story that Top Gear had been in talks about creating an American version. The current presenters would remain as hosts, but the show would focus on American cars and include American celebrities. The Sun reported in July, however, that plans for an American version had been shelved, partly over [Top Gear host Jeremy] Clarkson's misgivings about spending several months in the U.S., away from his family.

Ah. And then I found this bit of news from The Hollywood Reporter:

The popular BBC car show "Top Gear" is revving up a U.S. edition.

NBC has ordered a pilot for "Gear," to be produced by BBC Worldwide Prods. Like the original, it will be a mix of cars, humor and celebrities.

There's some trepidation of this remake, however. The hosts of Top Gear, Clarkson, Richard Hammond, James May and the anonymous & mysterious Stig, are considered a large part of the show's success. Without their wit and knowledge of cars, some wonder how NBC's Gear will succeed.

My prediction - if they can:

• find funny, witty hosts who actually know what they're talking about,
• are as entertaining as Tom and Ray Magliozzi (otherwise known as Click and Clack) of the NPR radio show Car Talk,
• can test drive these cars well enough to give informed opinions,
• and are camera-friendly (hey, this is Hollywood, after all),

…then they will have a serious shot at success. There will always be purists who dislike an international translation of a great piece of art. But US audiences are fairly different than UK audiences. Some kind of translation is going to be necessary (like pick-up truck and SUV off-roading, I tell ya!).

I'll be anxiously awaiting this new show. I hope they don't screw it up!

UPDATE 4/3/2008: Here's Jay Leno's opinion on the US version of Top Gear. Pretty dire. I hope he was kidding when he related this anecdote about Gear being about building cars:

I ask: what’s the plan for the show? "Well, like, one week you build a car that flies and the next week you make a car that goes under water." So I said: you know you can’t build these things in a week.

Building cars? How did they go from Top Gear to Pimp My Ride? Damn, I hope that's not what Gear is going to be…

This just in from Caroline McCarthy of Webware: "Report: Facebook threatens to ban Gawker's Denton"!

So here's what went down. Just this past Tuesday, Nick Denton, founder of the blog network Gawker Media, published the article "Emily Brill: The Second Generation", where he featured some very unflattering screenshots taken from a Facebook member's profile page. This is after Denton "took over as managing editor of Gawker.com this month after several staff departures," reports McCarthy.

The victim is 25-year-old Emily Brill, daughter of Steven Brill, the founder of CourtTV (I mean truTV), American Lawyer Magazine, and numerous other companies. The screenshots included a set of photos comparing Emily in a bikini against an older college photo where she was "significantly heavier," adds McCarthy.

Sam Gustin of Portfolio.com writes in his article "Blogger Bullying Draws a Website Warning" that Denton "has violated Facebook's terms of use… and the social network's honchos are not amused."

Facebook's Terms of Use make it clear that, "Except for your own User Content, you may not upload or republish Site Content on any Internet, Intranet or Extranet site or incorporate the information in any other database or compilation, and any other use of the Site Content is strictly prohibited."

This could result in Denton being banned from Facebook.

Not surprisingly, this isn't the first time information from someone's Facebook profile has been used against them. Back in August 2007, Lucy Morrow Caldwell of Slate Magazine published the article "Daddy Dearest: Rudy Giuliani's daughter is supporting Barack Obama". Since both Caldwell and the 17-year-old Caroline Giuliani are both part of the Harvard network, Caldwell was able to see that Giuliani listed her political view as "liberal" and joined the Facebook group "Barack Obama (One Million Strong for Barack)." She has since withdrawn from the group.

Also, back in October 2007, Owen Thomas of Valleywag published the article "Confirmed: Facebook and Microsoft flacks make friends before deal announcement" after noticing that Brandee Barker, head of PR at Facebook, added Adam Sohn, head of marketing PR at Microsoft (MSFT), as a friend. "Just buddies?" wrote Thomas. "I think not. But I'm sure writing up the press release announcing Microsoft's investment and ad deal will make them fast friends, indeed."

This almost led to Thomas being banned from Facebook too, his insiders told him.

What's this mean for you and I? Well, for one, don't post any naked photos of yourself on Facebook, or anywhere else online for that matter. "Well, duh Mike, that's a no-brainer," you say? Sorry kids, practicing safe Facebooking still means you could catch a case of public crabs. (Only abstinence is the true protection, but what's the fun in that?) Let me explain.

1. Someone else could upload photos of you

   And if that person tags you in the photos, the photo is now linked to you. Fortunately, you can remove your tag from photos (and videos too). Whew.

2. Strangers may be able to see your profile

   McCarthy notes that it's not clear whether Denton and Brill are friends on Facebook, but since both are members of the New York regional network, there's a chance he could have seen her profile without being directly connected. For instance, if someone pokes you, you can see their profile. So if you poke back, they can see your profile. Fortunately, you can control what they see by altering your Poke, Message and Friend Request Settings.

3. Strangers could see your photos if they have your album's URL

   According to Thomas, Facebook privacy is an illusion. Someone gave him the exact URL to a photo album of Facebook's CEO Mark Zuckerberg, despite not being directly connected to him. This allowed Thomas (and any of us) to view the entire album. Unfortunately, there's no way to counter this at the moment, though I'm guessing Facebook's engineers are working on this.

How does Denton feel about being banned from a potentially plump source of stories? As Peter Kafka of Silicon Alley Insider writes in "Nick Denton's Gawker Takes On Scientologists, Facebook, Wins":

Denton tells us he doesn't care if Facebook boots him off the social network: "I was getting bored of Facebook, anyway." (Note to Gawker Media employees: Yes, we know Denton forced you all to join Facebook last spring. We don't know whether this means you're off the hook, though.)

And for the curious stalkers out there, sorry to dash your hopes, but "perhaps due to the Gawker incident, Emily Brill's Facebook profile is no longer publicly searchable," says McCarthy. Which is for the best; this Paris-Hilton-esque spotlight must've been Hell for her.